Open Interest Pinning and Butterflies

[taowave]

Yup,that's probably what he had in mind..

Do you think AAPL "settles" within the 134 straddle range??

Lets use AAPL as an example.

• AAPL at $132.69.
• Jan08 134 calls appear to have the highest open interest at 32,437.
• Will AAPL close at $134 on Jan 08?
• Lets check back this Friday.

I do believe the above example is what the OP has in mind - if not please correct it.

 

[OptionsOptionsOptions]

Yup,that's probably what he had in mind..

Do you think AAPL "settles" within the 134 straddle range??

• I think AAPL will be close to $134 - but not at $134.
• It might be off enough to make the butterfly with the guts at $134 a loser.

 

[.sigma]

Lets use AAPL as an example.

• AAPL at $132.69.
• Jan08 134 calls appear to have the highest open interest at 32,437.
• Will AAPL close at $134 on Jan 08?
• Lets check back this Friday.

I do believe the above example is what the OP has in mind - if not please correct it.

Bad example IMO.

Reason being is AAPL is one of the most liquid products.

For something like this to work (in my mind), I'd choose a more illiquid candidate. In fact, if this theory did "work" i'd expect it to only manifest on stocks with lesser strikes and less liquidity.

Lets use RIOT as an example:

1. RIOT at $16.99
2. 8 JAN 21 $20 calls have the highest open interest at 10,023
3. Will RIOT close at $20 on Jan 08?
4. Lets check back this Friday.

 

[caroy]

There will be no data.




Pinning doesn't exist - after expiration you can come up will sorts of reasons a stock behaved in a certain way. By then it's too late to make a trade.

I'm pretty sure if it exists after the fact then it happened on expiration day. There are reasons for it tied to the inventory of long options held by the large market making firms.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/market-measures/episodes/expiration-pinning-09-21-2012

 

[caroy]

Bad example IMO.

Reason being is AAPL is one of the most liquid products.

For something like this to work (in my mind), I'd choose a more illiquid candidate. In fact, if this theory did "work" i'd expect it to only manifest on stocks with lesser strikes and less liquidity.

Lets use RIOT as an example:

View attachment 247992
View attachment 247993 View attachment 247993

1. RIOT at $16.99
2. 8 JAN 21 $20 calls have the highest open interest at 10,023
3. Will RIOT close at $20 on Jan 08?
4. Lets check back this Friday.

To have a real test I'll put on a 1:3:2 broken wing call butterfly in RIOT tomorrow. 19,20, 21.5 broken wing. Should be able to put on at a credit of .19 (wide bid asks so we'll see but if I can get a small credit minus commissions will execute) and will hold till Friday and see how it ends up. If we gravitate to 20 winner winner max profit if we don't I'll take my $10 in premium minus commission and enjoy some portillos for lunch.

 

[caroy]

To have a real test I'll put on a 1:3:2 broken wing call butterfly in RIOT tomorrow. 19,20, 21.5 broken wing. Should be able to put on at a credit of .19 (wide bid asks so we'll see but if I can get a small credit minus commissions will execute) and will hold till Friday and see how it ends up. If we gravitate to 20 winner winner max profit if we don't I'll take my $10 in premium minus commission and enjoy some portillos for lunch.

Although with bitcoin futures up 15% tonight i'm guessing RIOT opens a tad higher tomorrow. Pricing might be different but we'll see.

 

[.sigma]

To have a real test I'll put on a 1:3:2 broken wing call butterfly in RIOT tomorrow. 19,20, 21.5 broken wing. Should be able to put on at a credit of .19 (wide bid asks so we'll see but if I can get a small credit minus commissions will execute) and will hold till Friday and see how it ends up. If we gravitate to 20 winner winner max profit if we don't I'll take my $10 in premium minus commission and enjoy some portillos for lunch.

Personally I'd never sell bodies at strikes that have never been touched before. Not saying RIOT won't touch $20, though.

I'm curious why a 132? Why break a wing?

Glancing at RIOT's chain I created this:

8 JAN 21 17/20/23 @ 0.55 risk

 

[.sigma]

@caroy

nvm, I know why you chose such a narrow fly, because that’s exactly what a “pin” play is. When spot ends up at the vertex of the triangular risk profile of a fly.

But I’m still curious why did you break the upper wing? Why not a symmetrical fly to keep this example simple

 

[caroy]

I like the broken wing as it usually allows the trade to be done at a credit. If it moves lower with calls or higher with puts then I can keep the credit. I like the credit even though it increases the risk of a loss but the POP is much higher than the balanced fly.

 

[caroy]

To have a real test I'll put on a 1:3:2 broken wing call butterfly in RIOT tomorrow. 19,20, 21.5 broken wing. Should be able to put on at a credit of .19 (wide bid asks so we'll see but if I can get a small credit minus commissions will execute) and will hold till Friday and see how it ends up. If we gravitate to 20 winner winner max profit if we don't I'll take my $10 in premium minus commission and enjoy some portillos for lunch.

Trade executed slightly altered 19 - 20 -22 1:3:3 Broken Wing Butterfly @ .45 credit filled this morning. Hoping for RIOT at the pinning strike of 20 on Friday.