Only Idiots Make Public Stock Calls

[muller]

Quote from LeeD:

Perhaps, a call is an opinion that is specific regarding the anticipated price action.

If you say, a company produces unique equipment that is in high demand and has great profit potential, it is opinion.

If you say, today the stock price dercreased to 200 and it won't go below 198, it's a call.... Or buy now, target is 250 is a call.

Thanks. Maybe a dumb question; calls are opinions.
Maybe it's the way how you're expressing yourself.
To me trading is a game of probabilities. So it's always could, would, or should.
I watch the market each day 6 hours. So there are times when I say the price WILL go that way, because it HAS to, because there's no other way to go.
So then, the higher the probability, the more my opinion will turn into a call (?).

But THEN, it's also the skill of the beholder when to utter an opinion or make a call. (you know, the ability to read the market)
And then, are you the idiot for making the call (wanting to voice your opinion), or for misinterpreting the market, OR just because you wants to get recognized?
As for the about recognition game, why posting at forums at all? how about we all post our real names here? how about we all show our balance sheets?
You all know how successful trading can be boring, even as a daytrader.

To me, an idiot walks around without pants and gets beaten up soon.

 

[LeeD]

Quote from muller:

To me trading is a game of probabilities. So it's always could, would, or should.
I watch the market each day 6 hours. So there are times when I say the price WILL go that way, because it HAS to, because there's no other way to go.

If you start thinking like this, you are not sufficiently comfortable with probabilistic outcome.

"In fact, the degree by which you think you know, you assume you know, or in any way you need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas "Trading in the zone"

Quote from muller:

So then, the higher the probability, the more my opinion will turn into a call (?).

Not necessarily. A call may read "Buy (current price is 200), target 250, stop 198. A call doesn't have to express any confidence in the outcome - just a potential for a profitable trade."

(For most analysts a "call" corresponds to high confidence in the outcome but it doesn't have to.)

Quote from muller:

As for the about recognition game, why posting at forums at all? how about we all post our real names here? how about we all show our balance sheets?

As I wrote above in this thread, some may make calls because they are already in the position. So, they need a critical mass to move the price in their favour.

Others may feel satisfaction from helping others. They may have moved to more profitable a startegy.

Also

Quote from flipflopper:

Because public stock calls are almost exclusively top or bottom calls.

Top and bottom calls are the lowest probability trades.

Some traders may want to see forum replies. Feedback may provide a valuable indication of the sentiment in the market.

 

[epetrov]

Quote from Swan Noir:

FlipFlopper has it right but I would also add that if you need the recognition that you get from doing things that do not add even one single dime to your bottom line ... well, that's a problem.

Is your statement valid for people who make public their P/Ls??

 

[Swan Noir]

I really was trying to express how foolish i felt making the Short X call. For me, the less validation I need from others, the happier I am in life. I'm not trying to suggest I uniquely do not need it or that I am superior to others who may need more.

Rather than talk about "people who make public their P/Ls" I'd rather say that for me to do that would be foolish.

Quote from epetrov:

Is your statement valid for people who make public their P/Ls??

 

[Swan Noir]

Enter buy stop just before tomorrow's open at 60.71.