Only 2 out of 52 top economists forecast a recession:
in the world of contrary thinking....that means a recession
in the world of contrary thinking....that means a recession
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Only 2 out of 52 top economists forecast a recession:
- Thread starter crgarcia
- Start date
Quote from day7793:
So whats the big deal? Why panic and let short sellers wipe out your accounts? why not start bargain hunting?
I repeated 1000 times on this forum: Recessions do not happen in election years. You can see how White house, Congress, Senate is hopping around pushing things for us. You can see how Feds are hell bent on rate cutting spree.
Get it?
Group think and path dependancy are the road to financial ruin but pls knock yourself out. (No I really mean it)
Quote from day7793:
So whats the big deal? Why panic and let short sellers wipe out your accounts? why not start bargain hunting?
I repeated 1000 times on this forum: Recessions do not happen in election years. You can see how White house, Congress, Senate is hopping around pushing things for us. You can see how Feds are hell bent on rate cutting spree.
Get it?
I m not too sure about that...
OFFICIALS CRITICIZE FEDERAL RESERVE
By PETER T. KILBORN, SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: February 20, 1988
LEAD: The Reagan Administration today blamed the Federal Reserve, along with October's stock market rout, for the slowdown in the election-year economy.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE0D6163FF933A15751C0A96E948260
I dont buy what economists or politicians have to say about the economy. Most are out of touch with the real world or they are just full of shit. I can't count how many times I've heard Bush talking about how strong and vibrant the economy is while I here from friends about how people at their work are getting laid off and about how business is slowing with no new work on the horizon. My brother in law was laid off along with 200 other people at his company and the leasing company came and took all the equipment back. I drive by brand new commercial buildings that have been sitting vacant for months and I see people having to cut back on their living expenses to make ends meet.
You got Bernanke saying the economy is growing and there is no recession looming now all of a sudden you've got Bernanke cutting rates like crazy, and Bush and the other politicians putting together this 150 billion dollar bailout package when just a couple of months ago they were saying things were good.
most economists probably sit in a room looking at numbers put out by the government that is constantly being revised and have no basis in reality like the government inflation numbers. These guys are out of touch with what is going on in the day to day lives of the average guy. I know that it costs me a lot more to fill up my tank and I know that my food costs more than it did last year but when do you think the last time was that Bush filled up his own gas tank and when was the last time he went to the grocery store and saw that his favorite bread was no longer 2.99 but 4.00 and he said to himself I'm going to have to just get whats on sale.
All I know is that this shit that is going on now has been brewing for the last couple of years and hardly anyone has said anything about it but I bet if the shit really hits the fan you're going to see after the fact a lot of economists coming out of the woodwork saying they called it.
You got Bernanke saying the economy is growing and there is no recession looming now all of a sudden you've got Bernanke cutting rates like crazy, and Bush and the other politicians putting together this 150 billion dollar bailout package when just a couple of months ago they were saying things were good.
most economists probably sit in a room looking at numbers put out by the government that is constantly being revised and have no basis in reality like the government inflation numbers. These guys are out of touch with what is going on in the day to day lives of the average guy. I know that it costs me a lot more to fill up my tank and I know that my food costs more than it did last year but when do you think the last time was that Bush filled up his own gas tank and when was the last time he went to the grocery store and saw that his favorite bread was no longer 2.99 but 4.00 and he said to himself I'm going to have to just get whats on sale.
All I know is that this shit that is going on now has been brewing for the last couple of years and hardly anyone has said anything about it but I bet if the shit really hits the fan you're going to see after the fact a lot of economists coming out of the woodwork saying they called it.
economists almost never predict recessions in advance. two main reasons for this:
1) many of them work for Wall St firms and major investment banks, and thus are NOT ALLOWED to forecast recession as it is very bad for biz. Similar to how many scientists CANNOT argue against man made global warming. Their universities would fire em. Too anti PC.
2) Economists are lemmings. Always have been. They don't want to stick their neck out and be labeled as dead wrong. Lots safer to say what everyone else is saying.
I doubt this will ever change.
1) many of them work for Wall St firms and major investment banks, and thus are NOT ALLOWED to forecast recession as it is very bad for biz. Similar to how many scientists CANNOT argue against man made global warming. Their universities would fire em. Too anti PC.
2) Economists are lemmings. Always have been. They don't want to stick their neck out and be labeled as dead wrong. Lots safer to say what everyone else is saying.
I doubt this will ever change.
Quote from Jayford:
economists almost never predict recessions in advance. two main reasons for this:
1) many of them work for Wall St firms and major investment banks, and thus are NOT ALLOWED to forecast recession as it is very bad for biz. Similar to how many scientists CANNOT argue against man made global warming. Their universities would fire em. Too anti PC.
2) Economists are lemmings. Always have been. They don't want to stick their neck out and be labeled as dead wrong. Lots safer to say what everyone else is saying.
I doubt this will ever change.
Its not that complicated. Why do you need an econmist to tell you something ? Use your own head and do some of your own research and read.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so putting money in the hands of shoppers is an easy way to boost economic output -- at least in the short run
Unless the US consumer freezes spending there won't be any recession. I have not seen any evidence of that except in real estate market where the consumer is stuck like a deer in the headlights.
Quote from day7793:
Its not that complicated. Why do you need an econmist to tell you something ? Use your own head and do some of your own research and read.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, so putting money in the hands of shoppers is an easy way to boost economic output -- at least in the short run
Unless the US consumer freezes spending there won't be any recession. I have not seen any evidence of that except in real estate market where the consumer is stuck like a deer in the headlights.
You sound like someone with a huge loss.
Quote from thecalip:
by the time the other 50 forecast a recession, it's already over.
So why worry about such a thing? Stock market usually goes flat during recessions and SPX stays flat. Read up on it at Investors.com and S&P market scope etc.
It does not gyrates and makes huge swings and keeps selling off as these are manipulated games played by institutional traders these days. They are implanted FEARS so you capitulate and sell while they high five to the bank.