Online Poker's Big Winner
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
Quote from ElCubano:
If the future outcome of a string of trades can't be gauranteed profit..How is that not gambling? I'm not saying one can't make money....I'm just saying it can't be gauranteed..Yeah Yeah , I know that nothing in life is garaunteed so it must be all gambling......
I should've attached a better explanation, but I didn't. I wasn't referring to gambling in the classical sense of the word. IOW, to risk money on ANY outcome with ANY amount of uncertainty.
This thread is specifically directed toward games with a net negative expectancy. That is, poker has a net negative expectancy equal to the size of the rake. When I say gambling, I am then referring to this type of game. Not wagering on uncertain outcomes in general.
My point was that trading has a net negative expectancy for most traders, which isn't any different than playing poker really. For derivatives, the net outcome will be a negative expectancy equal to the commissions. For equities, it might still be long-term profitable, but will be net negative relative to the market increase as a whole.
For about 1% though (or maybe far fewer), their strategy actually does carry a positive long-term expectancy. This is not at all like poker or any other casino games. With proper risk management, this is a long-term investment. It isn't really a question of whether they will make money in the end, it is more a question of how long it takes to reach the expected statistical outcome. To suggest that a trader in this situation is gambling, is to also suggest that the casino is gambling when it installs a roulette wheel. Indeed, the outcome of a particular spin or deal is uncertain, but the long term outcome is not. And so it is with certain traders. But again, these traders are few and far between.
KX..you still in the Burgh?
What I find curious is that the three who stayed in the same condo are all pro online players. This could be related to the hedge fund managers brought under the same roof. Most worked with each other at one point or another.
I guess for one to be successful, they have to be surrounded by those who are extremely successful.
I guess for one to be successful, they have to be surrounded by those who are extremely successful.
No, in fact it is generally accepted fact that many players utilize such tools. Calculating odds can be done by a good player in his head on the flay. That isn't really unfair IMO. What is unfair is for 5 other players at a table to be in contact with each other sharing information about what cards have already been dealt. This knowledge changes the odds immensely and there really isn't a good way to prevent it.
Here's a 60 Minutes' story about one-such scam:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/25/60minutes/main4633254.shtml