one-offs

It's root time neutral, but intraday. I will post the closing price but I can't post the structure here. It's a complex structure in calls, but it can be traded as puts or a combo. It happens to have filled as a cs-complex order.
 

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7% yesterday. 4.5% today. Bought the ATM pfly and long futures, neutral when traded. Skews were just stupid yesterday (which paid, today).
 

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You can go long vega (I am; long 4500 vega) but that doesn't tell you anything about the structure. Iwon't carry it through the number with that figure as the vols will drop to the mid 50s for Sep.
 
poopy said:
It's root time neutral, but intraday. I will post the closing price but I can't post the structure here. It's a complex structure in calls, but it can be traded as puts or a combo. It happens to have filled as a cs-complex order.
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It's already up $4K or so.

upload_2024-8-28_9-6-50.png
 
If you want to trade a cheap flier that is within the likely upside on a decent beat (datacenter figure) then buy the 130-140 fly for Aug here. It's 0.44 mid. I have it as well as the 132-140 fly from 0.29 (both as sym-strikes).
 
poopy said:
You can go long vega (I am; long 4500 vega) but that doesn't tell you anything about the structure. Iwon't carry it through the number with that figure as the vols will drop to the mid 50s for Sep.
More...
Can't go long Vega thru the number. Cannot. Obv you can be net long v-intraday.
 
poopy said:
If you want to trade a cheap flier that is within the likely upside on a decent beat (datacenter figure) then buy the 130-140 fly for Aug here. It's 0.44 mid. I have it as well as the 132-140 fly from 0.29 (both as sym-strikes).
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I'd rather go with the 35-45 but I am not adding here.
 
poopy said:
Mondays for the backs looks great bc weekends as trading days. if you price that double Th-Fri you would never trade it. Why are Friday to Monday vols so impacted? Weekends. Everything looks like an arb when carried over the weekend. You have to treat these weekend carries (going OTB on Monday) as essentially 1, 2 day series. Well, 1 x 2.5 essentially.

Yours specifically is beta to NVDA vol. It's going to get crushed and obv worse if we trade >1SD away from the current mark.
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Thanks @poopy I had forgotten that NVDA earnings are tonight, which obviously removes the rationale for that trade.
 
fascinating discussion, though it mostly feels like me nodding along as others talk to each other in a foreign language
 
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