One more double = retirement

Jakobsberg · Jul 7, 2014

Objective.

Well as the thread title suggests its to double my money. Ideally before mid 2016 which is my 40th birthday so in about 2 years but if it takes longer then so be it. 23% a year for 3 years would double your money which is a reasonable aim. The last 3 years have been great and as always its hard to differentiate the luck from skill. A lot will depend on the continuation of this bull market. At the moment I see a slow grinding recovery for at least another 18 months and will just try to take opportunities as they arise.

General outlook

For the last few years I have not held major US positions as it has always looked expensive compared to the EU. Now the EU is a bit cheaper but the gap has closed and performance over the last 3 to 6 months has been similar. I am currently starting to build up positions in Emerging markets for a few reasons:
1. Its cheap and going up! Lots of stocks on PE of 10 and dividend yields >4%.
2. Fund flows are going into these markets again after many years of outflows.
3. US is growing again, EU is growing slowly - if this continues Emerging markets have potential to go up >30% to get back to reasonable multiples. Probably only use stops for leveraged EM positions. A floor seems to have formed e.g. VWO around 38.

Jakobsberg · Jul 8, 2014

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="710"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2852;width:59pt" width="78"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:5010;width:103pt" width="137"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3254;width:67pt" width="89"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1462;width:30pt" width="40"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2486;width:51pt" width="68"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2413;width:50pt" width="66"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3072;width:63pt" width="84"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3072;width:63pt" width="84"> <col style="width:48pt" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height:12.75pt;width:59pt" height="17" width="78">Type</td> <td class="xl26" style="width:103pt" width="137">Detail</td> <td class="xl26" style="width:67pt" width="89">Market value</td> <td class="xl27" style="width:30pt" width="40">
</td> <td class="xl30" style="width:51pt" width="68">% change</td> <td class="xl31" style="width:50pt" width="66"> % of total </td> <td class="xl31" style="width:63pt" width="84"> Leverage </td> <td class="xl35" style="width:63pt" width="84"> Underlying </td> <td class="xl26" style="width:48pt" width="64">Notes</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl24" colspan="4" style="height:12.75pt;mso-ignore:colspan" height="17">Income - purchased using loan from broker at 2.8%.</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl35">
</td> <td class="xl26">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Pref stock</td> <td>Amasten Preference</td> <td align="right">109000</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">2.7</td> <td class="xl29"> 2.08 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 109,000 </td> <td>7.4% yield</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Bond fund</td> <td>Emerging market debt</td> <td align="right">499761</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">0</td> <td class="xl29"> 9.53 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 499,761 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Bond fund</td> <td>Nordic corporate</td> <td align="right">504061</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">0.8</td> <td class="xl29"> 9.61 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 504,061 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Bond fund</td> <td>EU high yield</td> <td align="right">754582</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">0.6</td> <td class="xl29"> 14.39 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 754,582 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">1867404</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl32"> </td> <td class="xl37"> 35.60 </td> <td class="xl33"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 1,867,404 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl34">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl26" colspan="2" style="height:12.75pt;mso-ignore:colspan" height="17">Stock and Stock funds</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl34">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock</td> <td>Swedbank</td> <td align="right">214354</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">7.5</td> <td class="xl29"> 4.09 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 214,354 </td> <td>5.75% yield</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock index</td> <td>OMXS30</td> <td align="right">1068887</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">14</td> <td class="xl29"> 20.38 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 1,068,887 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock fund</td> <td>Spain/Portugal</td> <td align="right">361618</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">20.5</td> <td class="xl29"> 6.89 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 361,618 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock fund</td> <td>Italy</td> <td align="right">196082</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">-2</td> <td class="xl29"> 3.74 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 196,082 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock fund</td> <td>Frontier</td> <td align="right">249447</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">24.7</td> <td class="xl29"> 4.76 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 249,447 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock fund</td> <td>Emerging </td> <td align="right">102827</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">3</td> <td class="xl29"> 1.96 </td> <td class="xl29"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl34"> 102,827 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">2193215</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl32"> </td> <td class="xl37"> 41.81 </td> <td class="xl33"> 1.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 2,193,215 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl34">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl26" style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Warrants</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl29">
</td> <td class="xl34">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Commodity</td> <td>Gold</td> <td align="right">10472</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">2</td> <td class="xl29"> 0.20 </td> <td class="xl29"> 11.57 </td> <td class="xl34"> 121,163 </td> <td>Recent purchase</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock index</td> <td>BRIC</td> <td align="right">397767</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">24</td> <td class="xl29"> 7.58 </td> <td class="xl29"> 2.53 </td> <td class="xl34"> 1,005,315 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock index</td> <td>BRIC</td> <td align="right">61302</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">54</td> <td class="xl29"> 1.17 </td> <td class="xl29"> 3.27 </td> <td class="xl34"> 200,181 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock</td> <td>NCC</td> <td align="right">72107</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">27</td> <td class="xl29"> 1.37 </td> <td class="xl29"> 4.65 </td> <td class="xl34"> 335,085 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock index</td> <td>Russia RDX</td> <td align="right">97180</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">56</td> <td class="xl29"> 1.85 </td> <td class="xl29"> 2.77 </td> <td class="xl34"> 269,418 </td> <td>Letting profits run</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock</td> <td>Tesla</td> <td align="right">101936</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl28">23</td> <td class="xl29"> 1.94 </td> <td class="xl29"> 3.52 </td> <td class="xl34"> 359,203 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">740764</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl32"> </td> <td class="xl37"> 14.12 </td> <td class="xl33"> 3.09 </td> <td class="xl36"> 2,290,365 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Jakobsberg · Jul 8, 2014

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0" width="710"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2852;width:59pt" width="78"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:5010;width:103pt" width="137"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3254;width:67pt" width="89"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1462;width:30pt" width="40"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2486;width:51pt" width="68"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2413;width:50pt" width="66"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3072;width:63pt" width="84"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:3072;width:63pt" width="84"> <col style="width:48pt" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl28" style="height:12.75pt;width:59pt" height="17" width="78">Type</td> <td class="xl28" style="width:103pt" width="137">Detail</td> <td class="xl28" style="width:67pt" width="89">Market value</td> <td class="xl29" style="width:30pt" width="40">
</td> <td class="xl32" style="width:51pt" width="68">% change</td> <td class="xl33" style="width:50pt" width="66"> % of total </td> <td class="xl33" style="width:63pt" width="84"> Leverage </td> <td class="xl37" style="width:63pt" width="84"> Underlying </td> <td class="xl28" style="width:48pt" width="64">Notes</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl28" style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Certificate</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bear</td> <td>Twitter</td> <td align="right">4123</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-60</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.08 </td> <td class="xl31">- 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36">- 12,369 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Amazon</td> <td align="right">7506</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-28</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.14 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 22,518 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Facebook</td> <td align="right">7107</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-30</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.14 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 21,321 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Google</td> <td align="right">8745</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-16</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.17 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 26,235 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Hexagon</td> <td align="right">9282</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-9</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.18 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 27,846 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>JM</td> <td align="right">34425</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">14</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.66 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 103,275 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>NCC</td> <td align="right">12507</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">23</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.24 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 37,521 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Index-Bull</td> <td>OMXS30 (Sweden)</td> <td align="right">54515</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">11</td> <td class="xl31"> 1.04 </td> <td class="xl31"> 15.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 817,725 </td> <td>Will sell soon</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Oriflame</td> <td align="right">8261</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-18</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.16 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 24,783 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>SSAB</td> <td align="right">85143</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">29</td> <td class="xl31"> 1.62 </td> <td class="xl31"> 4.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 340,572 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>StoraEnso</td> <td align="right">8226</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">-23</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.16 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 24,678 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Stock-Bull</td> <td>Vestas</td> <td align="right">186850</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">4</td> <td class="xl31"> 3.56 </td> <td class="xl31"> 3.00 </td> <td class="xl36"> 560,550 </td> <td>Sold today at breakeven</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">426690</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl34"> </td> <td class="xl39"> 8.13 </td> <td class="xl35"> 4.67 </td> <td class="xl38"> 1,994,655 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl28" style="height:12.75pt" height="17">Options</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">EKTAB4L80</td> <td>Elekta</td> <td align="right">15568</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.30 </td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">SSAB4L80</td> <td>SSAB</td> <td align="right">1350</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.03 </td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">SSAB4L90</td> <td>SSAB</td> <td align="right">300</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.01 </td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">
</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">17218</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31"> 0.33 </td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td style="height:12.75pt" height="17">
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl26">Total</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">5245291</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl34"> </td> <td class="xl35"> </td> <td class="xl35"> 1.59 </td> <td class="xl38"> 8,345,639 </td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl26">Loan</td> <td class="xl24" align="right">-2036814</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height:13.5pt" height="18"> <td style="height:13.5pt" height="18">
</td> <td class="xl27">Net Total</td> <td class="xl25" align="right">3208477</td> <td>
</td> <td class="xl30">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl31">
</td> <td class="xl36">
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Jakobsberg · Jul 8, 2014

A few notes about the certificates:
Apart from the OMXS30 10,000 SEK of each was purchased in mid-Feb. So terrible timing just before the Nasdaq dropped in March/April. A mix of Swedish and US stocks were selected. Bought more of the winners after underlying rose 10%. Thus far, the few winners have made up for the majority of loosers. Aim to sell everything if and when the net position goes negative. SSAB merger decision should be announced soon which could give major change either way.

Vestas - Sold just now as it fell back to breakeven point. Interesting chart but was a little late seeing the potential which is unfortunate as I had held it a few years previously. At peak had 50,000 SEK profit but stock seems to be breaking down now. Dropped over 10% since peak and a long time to the quarterly report.

Jakobsberg · Jul 11, 2014

Overall down 150,000 SEK for the week which is just less than 5%. So similar performance to the european indexes.

Sold leveraged Vestas and Tesla positions early in the week and with the cash bought a few more Emerging market funds. European markets were down 4% for the week this morning so used 2% of net assets to start some leveraged long positions on OMXS30 and SX5E. However, still hope that we get a decent correction, 10-15 % would be ideal to shake out the weak hands and give some good buying opportunities.

Should be interesting next week with lots of US and EU companies reporting.

Jakobsberg · Jul 23, 2014

Been on a very long weekend to London. Overall not much happened since I was away. Up 100,000 SEK. Losses from Spain, Italy and Russia being offset with gains in Emerging Markets and SSAB.

Central London prices are crazy. You will be luck to get a decent 2 bedroom apartment for 1 M USD.

All time high for earnings would seem to justify the current prices but im reluctant to buy more at this level. Still hoping for a 10 to 15 % correction. For the moment doesnt seem much to do apart from enjoy the sunshine.

Jakobsberg · Aug 1, 2014

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w

oNotOptimizeForBrowser/> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> Interesting week.

At the start was thinking that the SP500 may break through 2000 so put some orders to sell long positions and sell covered calls. These didnât get filled and I didnât like the way the market responded to the âgoodâ GDP and earnings data, so sold all the x15 leveraged long positions and certificates (mostly x3) before the major falls on Thursday.

[FONT=&quot]EuroStoxx50 index is now ca 7% off peak. Emerging markets not selling off as much and following the SP500. Overall down ca 100,000 SEK for the week but would have been worse if didnât get out of the leveraged long positions. Just hope itâs the start of a decent correction.[/FONT]

Jakobsberg · Aug 19, 2014

Started to buy the DAX when it had dropped 10%. Adding a bit more each day now as it rebounds.
Also switched the European high yield bonds into stocks. Its still possible to find Swedish stocks with a PE of 12 based on the last quarter earnings and a dividend yield >5%.

Seems just like another dip worth buying with the SP500 getting ready to have a run at 2000.

Jakobsberg · Aug 22, 2014

Been a good week with a strong rally. Account back to all time high ca. 3,250,000 SEK.
Dip was pretty standard, fairly easy to pick the bottom and a nice clean rebound to buy into.
I have a tendancy to buy and sell too soon if anything but so far still nervously holding onto the leveraged DAX and OMX30 stock bought during the dip. Unlike the S&P Euro stocks have still got back to the highs.

EM and NDX seem to have held up well during the past few weeks.

Mo06 · Aug 22, 2014

Well done, great performance.