Once Debt Ceiling is Lifted SPY Will...

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

an anecdote of the day:

I made a small withdrawal today from my IB account using ACH. I have done this many times in the p ast and it always works like this: initiate the transfer before cut-off, soon after 2pm ET the funds are deducted from equity, the following business day (typically) the money is in my bank account.

Today I initiated the transfer before the cut-off time BUT the money has not left the account even after the market closed. This is the FIRST time it ever happened.

My $1K won't make or break IB. I suspect I am not the only one in the same situation. It is possible that IB is making sure it (and the clients) have as many $$ as possible in case there is a liquidity crisis on Monday. Can't really blame them.


I note ACH is promised to be executed "typically within 1-3 business days" so I am not complaining.

The bottom line: "The fear of a Black Monday is rampant, possibly even among the brokers. Yet another reason to go Long!"

You said you are short VXX which would have almost unlimited risk potential on a big event. Seems unlikely but maybe the $1k is tied up on your margin requirements to hold such a short.

I find your trading highly unusual; last fall you were scared to death to go long anything during a nice bull run. Now, you like these high risk shorts around game changing news. I don't get it.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

You said you are short VXX which would have almost unlimited risk potential on a big event. Seems unlikely but maybe the $1k is tied up on your margin requirements to hold such a short.

I find your trading highly unusual; last fall you were scared to death to go long anything during a nice bull run. Now, you like these high risk shorts around game changing news. I don't get it.

all my positions have built in limit on losses. i am not that stupid to be short VXX outright. i have bear call spreads and puts on VXX.

the account shows excess equity that can be withdrawn, used for trades, etc. IB would not let you to initiate the withdrawal if the funds are not immediately available.

 

[True Feelings]

Open gap higher, and be a viable short on the open.

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

I wonder if the guys in the DC Mall area are also checking your polls to decide on the future of the great nation, in these unusual but frankly very testing times.

they probably did.


+3% 43 44.33%
+2% 31 31.96%
+/-1% 10 10.31%
-2% 4 4.12%
-3% 9 9.28%
Total: 97 votes 100%


the reference point is Friday close for SPY 129.33

Aug 05 SPY 130 straddle priced in 3% move by Friday BTW.

 

[S2007S]

23 minutes and counting till they pass another increase in the debt ceiling....pathetic nonsense

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

You said you are short VXX which would have almost unlimited risk potential on a big event. Seems unlikely but maybe the $1k is tied up on your margin requirements to hold such a short.

I find your trading highly unusual; last fall you were scared to death to go long anything during a nice bull run. Now, you like these high risk shorts around game changing news. I don't get it.

<iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/USlnfTGlhXc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Be Water, my friend!

--Shortie Lee OUT

p.s. ES +16 points this Sunday evening (BEFORE the deal is 100% sure)

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from shortie:



in any case: many, including myself, are clueless about the possible scenarios and their implications.

================
Most of the trends are down, Shortie;
SPY is a bit over sold but since most of the medium & shortie trends are down+downtrend.

True ,long term SPY, SLV, silver trends are up;
but gold, GLD frankly has more uptrends on all time frames. Not a prediction, simply wise probabilities/percentages
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

ES +16 points this Sunday evening (BEFORE the deal is 100% sure)

Shortie, its been pretty clear you don't fully understand your own position. I'm not really familiar with trading the VXX options ( I would have thought that's more of a hedge instrument then an underlying position ), but if it makes money for you well go for it.
I am very familiar with short term options.

I'm not sure how much money your rolling in this morning, but the bottom line is the news went your way so is the payoff to being "right" worth it ?

I do wonder though if after news how the implied volatility of volatility works, and how fast time decay kind of kills these fancy option positions. I would think without a clear idea where the instruments will likely go, that choosing entry and exit points isn't going to be all that clear.

You might be at that point now. Have you exercised your plan now or sitting on a complicated position not knowing how to liquidate it ? You did have a plan didn't you ?

 

[atticus]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Shortie, its been pretty clear you don't fully understand your own position.



I am very familiar with short term options.

14 months ago.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2841856#post2841856

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from atticus:

14 months ago.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2841856#post2841856

Buddy, the positions I take on at specific times of the year are short term speculations where I risk the entire capital to aim for between 200% and 3000% return. If I have a small basket of these, it is inevitable that a few of the losers are otm and worth almost nothing on expiry week.

I doubt you have the balls for this kind of trading frankly. If you were smart, you'd understand from my post that I was well aware of the risks in my trades. This does not excuse the broker from following their own rules. They have since changed their posted rules, suggesting that numerous people have run into this exact issue at the broker.