Quote from Trader13:
I have tested volume extensively to discover any potential use as a timing indicator to forecast what happens next. This is a reasonable thing to try. After all, we only have price, volume, and time as the basic variables.
I came to the same conclusion many others have, which is that volume has no predictive value whatsoever. It's useful for market analysts to observe how historical price moves coincide with trading activity and make thoughtful statements about market activity. But traders looking for a timing indicator will not find it in volume.
There might have been some time long ago (15+ years) when volume was predictive. But today's markets are dominated by derivatives, basket ETF's, and HFT that make volume nearly impossible to interpret.
The value in volume for traders is simply as a measure of liquidity. I apply a volume filter to the instruments I trade.
I agree with you and the results you got by doing what you did.
If three variables price, volume and time are used, it is not possible to forecast with a timing based indicator what happens next.
The Present is the only time available for having signals for happenings.
The key happenings are End Effects of trends. Thus the full offer of the market is a "taking" that accumulates from one End Effect to the next End Effect.
There are precisely 35 unique and different and, defined in the Present, End Effects.
Thus on a chosen fractal, during the formation of the signal of a happening, the happening occurs within the period of formation as a single, certain, unique and different element of the set of 35 End Effect happenings. The 35 EE's fit into 11 subsets.
Thank you for your post. I have looked at many platforms that were built to do testing. They have sets of criteria, filters, functions, rules, and strategies. Also there are three forms of operators that may be used to combine these sets to form even more complex analysis tools to meet a myriad of conceived goals.
I use such to know that I know how the flow of the human psychology is working out from the End effect that ends a trend all the way through the continuation of the flow of happenings that invariably lead to that trend's End Effect once the flow has come to an end during the formation, in the Present, of a certain End Effect.
Were I to divide my wqork time into two parts, the first lasted about 40 days and the second 54 years. Two inventions intervened: the PC and its printer capability.
The advent of platforms made it possible to can systems which define the operation of a market. Pleasantly, As technology advanced it was easier and easier to harden up the definitions of the parts of trends and particularly their End Effects. For trading to extract the full offer of the markets, the partial of the trend with with respect to the trend happening is the function to examine. This Parametric Measure is a vector which comes from the market algorithm which has to meet the Keynesian requirements.
You may have examined scalors instead.
