I'm hardly an "emh believer", but what I said is not the basis of EMH. I said that the news was already in the chart. Many times it will be in the chart weeks before the news becomes known to the likes of Pabst et al. EMH, on the other hand, postulates that all market participants receive and act on all relevant information as soon as it becomes available. This, again, is not the same thing.
For one thing, as you probably well know, not all market participants will receive the "relevant information" at the same time. And even if they did, there's no way in hell that they would all act on it the same way.
So why do stocks or other instruments rise? Because somebody thinks that they're worth more than the asking price. Why do they go down? Because somebody thinks they're worth less. (This, incidentally, is the problem with basing trading decisions on earnings; professional money is valuating stocks not on what earnings are or have been but on what it thinks earnings are going to be.) And, of course, stocks sometimes go up and down due to anticipation of events that never take place.
Do traders make rational decisions based on information at every price point? Of course not. Nearly all of them make decisions based on doubt, anxiety, fear, greed, hope, and a variety of other non-productive emotions. Even a cursory skimming of ET posts should verify that.
How do trends persist if everything is in the chart? Because nearly everybody likes to believe that they're smarter than everybody else and know more than everybody else (this also helps to account for the adolescent fascination with "calls"). They alone know what the stock is "worth". Therefore, they tap into the seemingly inexhaustible supply of greater fools. At least until the supply is exhausted.
But I've read a lot of your posts and you know all of this, unless I've misinterpreted what I've read of yours. If that's the case, don't be shy.
