Maybe for some traders, but not for me. Money is made or lost based on price. I am unable to trade on just tea leaves and chicken bones, no matter how much "I believe". I need protein.
On 10-case geometry and beyond
- Thread starter Simples
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Maybe for some traders, but not for me. Money is made or lost based on price. I am unable to trade on just tea leaves and chicken bones, no matter how much "I believe". I need protein.
Your perspective is always welcomed, thank you.
Although I disagree with the last paragraph. All the material is still accessible with diligent searching of long-tailed search strings and provide all the necessary elements to learn the various systems he generously passed forward.
Regrettably, I never had a direct dialogue with him. His thinking lives on in his writings and if it weren't for all the prior participants engaging with him, I wouldn't be a living testament of the power and durability of his particular method of transference. Deduction rules!
Also worthy of note, is when ET changed to a different forum platform. My deepest appreciation and gratitude goes to those whom restored a majority of the links and file uploads. This diligent effort kept his material and content alive for others inspired to walk the path of forming a 'full spectrum of differentiation' as it applies to trading free markets. Whether one appreciates the genius of Jack's writing's in up to one's on Due Diligence, in any case he was quite a character and his writings quite enjoyable when understandable.
Spydertrader also is in a class by himself. Without his generous and methodical approach to structuring a learning process to access Jack's concepts, it would not be nearly as accessible. He is/was a master teacher and I for one am deeply appreciative and grateful for his contributions.
Bravo!
i'm going to say a few things about degapping and practical applications then go back into my quiet corner.
first : if you are trading on the DAILY time frame using degapped charts you are in for a world of hurt so i wish you good luck !!!
thinking about things logically you ARE ESSENTIALLY trading the afterhours market on that timeframe so it makes no sense dollar wise to ignore it since you are exposed to risk even in non RTH.
i'm too lazy to dig up examples right now, but numerous such examples exist on the different threads of how an uptrend on a gapped chart looks like a downtrend on a degapped chart and vice versa.
Next intraday charts :
reading the various threads you come up with a paradox(an inconvenient truth so to speak). were Jack and Spyder WRONG all these early years having not degapped their charts?, did they specifically hold back for some reason? is this the missing ingredient that will make everything fall into place? etc.....
and as for logic questions : when the market goes into its lunchtime CCC can i ignore this entire price action since there's no volume?
how about news announcements that really move the market on big volume before opening-should i really discount those? etc...
i am talking from a perspective of someone who is trading REAL money and doesn't do this as an intellectual exercise, I needed to reconcile this for myself. for a while i kept 2 versions of the chart(gapped and degapped) and tried to make sense of it during the day til i decided this simply isn't practical. this might sound weird but the most important thing you can do is be consistent in everything you do so the answer TO ME was JUST PICK ONE AND STICK WITH IT.i picked degapping but i don't fault anybody for choosing otherwise, here is why (bear with me) :
an absolute and overarching truth is that the market exists on a fractal basis. you can absolutely use this truth to make money and see the forces that are in control during the day.i degap because i need a frame of reference to the fractals we had before the open. now as i mentioned before this works for me most of the time but sometimes i get surprised on the open.i can track it most of the time to a mistake but not all the time.
so being practical i start building fractals from scratch and use that to trade during the day(i leave the mistake finding to the debrief later).
sprout referenced before a post by jack 'starting from anywhere ' so you could think about it like that.
practical : compare and contrast volume moves, build fractals, keep things fluid and understand when dominance clearly tells you where the right side is.
first : if you are trading on the DAILY time frame using degapped charts you are in for a world of hurt so i wish you good luck !!!
thinking about things logically you ARE ESSENTIALLY trading the afterhours market on that timeframe so it makes no sense dollar wise to ignore it since you are exposed to risk even in non RTH.
i'm too lazy to dig up examples right now, but numerous such examples exist on the different threads of how an uptrend on a gapped chart looks like a downtrend on a degapped chart and vice versa.
Next intraday charts :
reading the various threads you come up with a paradox(an inconvenient truth so to speak). were Jack and Spyder WRONG all these early years having not degapped their charts?, did they specifically hold back for some reason? is this the missing ingredient that will make everything fall into place? etc.....
and as for logic questions : when the market goes into its lunchtime CCC can i ignore this entire price action since there's no volume?
how about news announcements that really move the market on big volume before opening-should i really discount those? etc...
i am talking from a perspective of someone who is trading REAL money and doesn't do this as an intellectual exercise, I needed to reconcile this for myself. for a while i kept 2 versions of the chart(gapped and degapped) and tried to make sense of it during the day til i decided this simply isn't practical. this might sound weird but the most important thing you can do is be consistent in everything you do so the answer TO ME was JUST PICK ONE AND STICK WITH IT.i picked degapping but i don't fault anybody for choosing otherwise, here is why (bear with me) :
an absolute and overarching truth is that the market exists on a fractal basis. you can absolutely use this truth to make money and see the forces that are in control during the day.i degap because i need a frame of reference to the fractals we had before the open. now as i mentioned before this works for me most of the time but sometimes i get surprised on the open.i can track it most of the time to a mistake but not all the time.
so being practical i start building fractals from scratch and use that to trade during the day(i leave the mistake finding to the debrief later).
sprout referenced before a post by jack 'starting from anywhere ' so you could think about it like that.
practical : compare and contrast volume moves, build fractals, keep things fluid and understand when dominance clearly tells you where the right side is.
Just a quick share of something I've been doing lately. A small twist on differentiation.
Jack and Spyder had similar-like drills.
1) Print-out only the volume pane using just 2 colors (bar close vs. bar open)...black/red or whatever, but only 2 colors.
2) Draw in the gaussians.
3) See how you did.
1) Print-out only the volume pane using 3 colors (bar close vs. bar open and WAIT)... 3 colors.
2) Draw in the gaussians.
3) See how you did.
Do internals affect your result?
No cheating... use different days, different instruments, etc.
Next iteration for me is bar open vs close plus OB's, but not WAIT.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Jack and Spyder had similar-like drills.
1) Print-out only the volume pane using just 2 colors (bar close vs. bar open)...black/red or whatever, but only 2 colors.
2) Draw in the gaussians.
3) See how you did.
1) Print-out only the volume pane using 3 colors (bar close vs. bar open and WAIT)... 3 colors.
2) Draw in the gaussians.
3) See how you did.
Do internals affect your result?
No cheating... use different days, different instruments, etc.
Next iteration for me is bar open vs close plus OB's, but not WAIT.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Love smooth trends with big ranges and no crappy spikes I don't know how to deal with 
Had a fabulous experience today with EE's predicting turns extremely well. I can nail some of them within 2-3 ticks! I don't necessarily find YM2min to be "leading" but the momentum shift is more noticeable there.
Bar 18 was interesting because it had 3 different EE's all on the same bar. I re-entered short on that bar when tick charts and YM2min seemed like it lost momentum then as the bar progressed it had BO,T1 so I figured this is a PP1 to BO,T1 on modrian table (C-C), plus overall bigger trend is still dominant to the short side so I stuck around and watched it become BM Rev + PP4. The next bar (19) retraced almost to the top of the bar but since this was C-turn I just sat there and watched it all the way down to Ag EE.
Reversed on that EE (bar 24 Ag) for 3 points or so only to find out I exited too early. I seem to have a hard time sticking around on A-turns because volume is dropping and I don't usually expect big moves. After that I thought about entering short on PP6 (bar 26) but just chickened out (would have worked for few points had I entered), and watched volume drop further to confusing area for me.
Bar 18 was interesting because it had 3 different EE's all on the same bar. I re-entered short on that bar when tick charts and YM2min seemed like it lost momentum then as the bar progressed it had BO,T1 so I figured this is a PP1 to BO,T1 on modrian table (C-C), plus overall bigger trend is still dominant to the short side so I stuck around and watched it become BM Rev + PP4. The next bar (19) retraced almost to the top of the bar but since this was C-turn I just sat there and watched it all the way down to Ag EE.
Reversed on that EE (bar 24 Ag) for 3 points or so only to find out I exited too early. I seem to have a hard time sticking around on A-turns because volume is dropping and I don't usually expect big moves. After that I thought about entering short on PP6 (bar 26) but just chickened out (would have worked for few points had I entered), and watched volume drop further to confusing area for me.
Nice catch! You go with the flow like that, it may catch part of good moves.
For getting earlier annotations around turns I've some comments below:
For #18 I wonder where is BM Rev and do you use visual BMs? PP4 may be considered 2 levels on IV, P1/T1, so would #19 then become another T1?
For #24 the trend proceeds a bit further until P1 Assigned and FTT on DV. Of course hard to catch in realtime, but measure PRV and perhaps compare to context, even leave some wiggle room?
#26 is then maybe not PP6 when #24 is P1 Assigned as per price geometry.
#6 I geometrically see as P1 too, which leads to more interesting development of FF Bands. Annotations here could prove educational.
#13 P1 is also interesting for further annotations, though #16-17 gets a bit confusing.
I like how you use early moves to go with flow though. Could always prove useful to get in the stream and something to keep in mind.
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I'm not always in the flow. Yesterday in the AM session for example was disastrous. I practially just simmed the whole day because I just couldn't make sense of it. I find when higher time frame (15 or 30m) is either retracing or in lateral, I tend to miss proper entry and exits. I also avoid the first 15 mins (Jack used to call it synch period) because well... it's just hard for me. They are also harder to make sense on the YM for me as well.