On 10-case geometry and beyond

kaizer said:
According to OP’s permission I’m starting to post my attempts to understand PV relationship for mapping the market context. I will concentrate on 5 minute ES RTH, only price and volume, no indicators and no additional tools discussed lately in Spydertrader’s journal. 20-period SMA is of no use too. Reading the Spyder’s journal I failed to figure out how he and other traders use this one MA.

For charts I will use standard bars coloration (close to open), time scale is exchange time, close of bar.

The first annotated day is 09 April. The 15/00 bar is not included to the screenshot to avoid volume histogram excess.

1. The first hour provides clear context for uptrending tape, we have 1,2,3 points. We have dominating black volume, than non-dominating red and return to black dominance.


The 1st container that you have defined is a channel composed of two tapes making a Fast Fractal from pt1 to pt2. There is another FF composed of two tapes from pt2 to pt3.

These 2 - two tape segments create a FF Dominant traverse long and a non-Dom FF traverse short.

With two traverses, a channel forms.

The reason they are two tape traverses, is that the initial two bar price case sets a RTL. Any deviation from this TL either is an acceleration of a de-acceleration (fanning) of the developing trend. The fact that the price cases deviates from the TL makes it two tapes on the visible Fast Fractal. One establishes the TL with the 3rd bar accelerating the TL.

I suppose one could use whatever naming convention they wanted. The difficulty will come later when skipping over basic granularity leads to misunderstandings and miscommunications. The issue has to do with a phenomenon of 'fractal jumping'. As one continues with MADA, there are containers in the OOE that do not appear in the same category as the one that preceding it.

Trends are interrupted when they do not complete. When they do not appear to complete, they either completed on a faster timeframe, completed within a single bar IBGS or were interrupted by a rapid change in sentiment.


2. 9/35-10/10 is non-dom lateral movement inside the tape.

3. 11/00 bar is the black one because of coloration clos e to open, but really it is the first bar with lower high and lower low than previous and increasing volume the same time. But the RTL remains intact. Is it R2R transition or not?

This is a good example of logging bar form and bar sentiment. This bar is an XR with a Long sentiment. Sentiment cycles more frequently than form. Each will assert themselves in different contexts to provide a signal. The signal can be continue or change and depends on other elements included in sweeping the dataset.

If this was a routine R2R, then WMCN is increasing price with decreasing volume, followed by decreasing price with increasing volume.

Bar sentiment can go through the cycling of b2b2r2b, r2r2b2r. It's just happening on a faster fractal then one is monitoring and requires 'looking inside the market' via faster timeframes to discern.


4. 11/25 is clear R2R transition with BO of RTL and starting the first tape down.

This is also in the area which frequently experiences DU volume during the middle of the day. Lack of volume also means lack of clear Dominance.


5. 11/50 is B2B after short but full cycle down tape.

6. After 2 tapes 11/45-12/15 and 12/15-12/45 the obvious issue takes place: we have B2B transition followed by R2R at 13/05. I know it is not normal and some kind of mistake is present but fail to determine which one.

Yes, it is a trend being interrupted. 13:05 was anticipated to be decreasing price, decreasing volume, yet short volume asserts itself and changes from being non-Dominant to Dominant as it XO the RTL.


The second screenshot is an alternative view. Is it the situation that @tiddlywinks talked about ‘volume defines containers and not visual geometry’?

7. The evening dynamics is clear acceleration of down tape.

The overnight session has a different character then RTH. Degapping from yesterday's close of settlement at 10min after the closing bell to tomorrow's opening bar will illuminate the relevance of the larger containers that span longer timeframes.

Good job on your annotated chart!
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Comments within quoted text.

@Simples, would you post your degapped QQQ's chart? I'm curious what the call will be for tomorrow from the rogue application of RDBMS.
 
tiddlywinks said:
SYM. DV. Wait.

FWIW: I don't agree with the starting points of green. Imo, that first RTL breach nipple is a red fan. pt1 is the next bar which is qualified as ftt. Based on that, the narrow black container IMO, is "more better" as the working "green" container. In fact, I would say THAT container sequence completed. It's a daily, so lots not seen, but Friday may have been ftt. I can't tell. Also, it is very clear, since April, this entire up movement is non-dom. I don't see a pt1 of a slower wider container. It is not where it would be expected. Therefore I can't subscribe to this being a pt3 in the making of a slower wider container. It's a daily, so lot's not seen. JMHO.
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Zoom In. Basically, I see it as #1 main black channel with nested channel #2 which itself has nested channel #3. Today is IB which formed two bar Horizontal Blue Channel (i.e. some type of Formation [SYM perhaps] in JHM terms).

QQQ (Daily) 3_20_2018 - 4_16_2018.jpg
 
Last edited:
I have revised my analysis of the rogue QQQ Daily (not degapped).

I have also included 2 levels of guassians, with a warning.... I do not think the solid line gaussian is a tape. Additionally the solid gaussians do fit properly within the dotted. That's an annoyance, but not a killer. There are many unseens in a daily bar. The fact is, this chart is loaded with 2-bar sequences and maybe even a few 1-bar sequences. IOW, the visibles are fractal jumpers!! Frankly, I don't know what "level" the solid gaussians are.

That said, the dotted TLs and dotted gaussians are ringing true for me. Some sort of forest level container (for lack of a better term). Let's not forget, there is some reason Daily bars were not part of Jacks or Spyders curriculum for trading futures. We just don't know what it is that makes it rogue.

The expected breakout area from the previous red container never occurred. There was not and has not been a valid BO of the "old" red container. Yet, price has moved in a non-dom manner, outside of what was suspected to be a down-sloped dom-container. The Dotted TLs and gaussians ring true for me.

We don't have a confirmed pt3 in this new analysis. The light blue line in the price pane is arbitrary... Perhaps it's a vaild BM, Im not sure. it was the high of what was thought to be an fbo of the "old" down-sloped dom-container. Right now, the dotted RTL is "tracking", expecting a pt3 to be made.

What must volume do to confirm or strongly suggest a point 3?

Fwiw, point 3 is followed by sequence completion, and all can occur in a single bar!!

Remember, these are daily bars. Moves, up or down, can be large and still be completely contained. :) Additionally we are in VDU... volume is barely perceptible on the tradingview daily. PRV should be very useful and used frequently through the coming days as a "leading" tool.

QQQ.png
 
Simples said:
DG QQQ for today. Latest development short tape on DU but still some black undertones in the lateral.

View attachment 184800
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bar108 XB, Ab EE, BM long, P1 assigned
bar109 Sym, wait, fan of RTL
bar110 XR, BO,T1, P1 assigned, BM short
bar111 XR, T1, Acc tape

even though earnings are here and it looks like a BO long,
bar112 anticipate short,

caveat, if this bar sets a HL then reverses and breaks and closes above bar111 high on increasing volume, reverse short to long. Increasing price on decreasing volume not closing above bar110 high's RTL, hold short.

An OB is in the cards this week, earlier than later.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.
 
Sprout said:
The software degapping makes it so much easier to log these volume events. This is what I see.


View attachment 184639


bar104 XB, BO,T1, P1 assigned BM Long
bar105 Sym, Wait
bar106 OB, BO,T1, Lat3, no wait, P1 assigned, BM Short
bar107 Sym, lat4, Retro, re-start from bar105-> T1, bar106->PP5, P1 assigned, bar107->T1
bar108 XR, lat5, P2
bar109 XB, lat6, T2P, Ab EE, P1 assigned
bar110 Sym, lat7, T1, BM Long

BM Long, Bias is Long, Failsafe BM,Rev on standby, Binary vector BO or FBO true at EOD.

Even though there is no pt3 for the larger short channel currently presenting, The fact the long volume is decreasing with increasing price is characteristic of being in a larger short channel. Having that larger channel is a note.

We are anticipating increasing volume arriving in the market with increased volatility with a BO long or a Failed BO and continue in the current Dominant Channel short.

Current bias is long.
Current RTL long intact.
Anticipating Dominant Traverse Long by
increasing price, decreasing volume transmuting into
increasing price, increasing volume.

Else,

Increasing volume, decreasing price will be ftt long, return to Dominant Short.
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While I respect the academics...what specific trade did you execute ?

It would be great if you followed through with a a trade from your charts. Thanks. I have my theory and vehicle but with out execution it is....just....theory.

@Sprout I have actually implemented concepts see from your exec. It would be great to see how you execute'. Actually trade/vehicle. Thanks.
 
Many thanks to thread participants for provided help. Personal thanks to @stepan7 for excellent summary. Will study and re-review charts and be back asap with more clear and (I hope) more correct annotation with all gaussians, etc.
 
sss12 said:
While I respect the academics...what specific trade did you execute ?

It would be great if you followed through with a a trade from your charts. Thanks. I have my theory and vehicle but with out execution it is....just....theory.

@Sprout I have actually implemented concepts see from your exec. It would be great to see how you execute'. Actually trade/vehicle. Thanks.
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I appreciate the request. If you want live calls this thread is more aligned with your desire.

It's a bit of a dilemma - folks whom share their trades but not their method or others whom share their method but not their trades.

I've witnessed countless threads that get derailed from folks who want 'proof'. From my pov, it shifts the focus and attracts unwanted attention. I'm not a guru, do not claim to be, nor desire any followers, nor charge any money. I'm just an ordinary guy, who got to work with diligent purposeful learning to create a spectrum of differentiation in my mind. I'm willing to share just as countless others before me have with those willing to do the work. It's changed my life.
Doing the work is the only way to give yourself true 'proof'. Maybe some others might be more comfortable with sharing their trades and p&l and grant your request.

In life, giving what you want is a good start.

I suppose in some minds, this is a child's playground of theory.

That's perfect in so many ways - Jack always mentioned 5th graders with crayon can learn quickly what others dismiss.
 
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