OMG I can't believe this fallacy still exists in trading!

[vanzandt]

You're getting close to understanding it. Would you say that a stock that was once a $100 and was now a $50 stock needs a lot more external force to return to $100 than it needed to drop to $50?

(Think of this as in a trading range not so much as a capitulation for simplicity)

If Abbott Labs opened at $50 tomorrow.... something FUNDAMENTAL happened to the company and forecast earnings have been reduced by ~1/2.

And aside from a dead cat bounce on a brief oversold condition... it's not going back to $100 anytime soon.

The only external force that will get it back to $100 is when the historic PE multiplied by forecast earnings equals $100.... give or take some for the range of the PE and overall market sentiment.

 

[wxytrader]

If Abbott Labs opened at $50 tomorrow.... something FUNDAMENTAL happened to the company and forecast earnings have been reduced by ~1/2.

And aside from a dead cat bounce on a brief oversold condition... it's not going back to $100 anytime soon.

The only external force that will get it back to $100 is when the historic PE multiplied by forecast earnings equals $100.... give or take some for the range of the PE and overall market sentiment.

You need to forget about fundamentals as they are not only irrelevant 99% as far as price action...they are also irrelevant to the discussion.

 

[vanzandt]

(Think of this as in a trading range not so much as a capitulation for simplicity)

CAN WE GET SOME REAL WORLD EXAMPLES OF STOCKS THAT TRADE IN A RANGE OF -50% +100%

 

[vanzandt]

You need to forget about fundamentals as they are not only irrelevant 99% as far as price action...they are also irrelevant to the discussion.

EXAMPLES PLEASE

 

[newwurldmn]

Just started trading? lol who has a Lambo?
We aren't talking about a portfolio being down 50% and how much percent is needed to recover...we are talking about the price of a stock being down 50% and the probabilities of it returning a previous level.

Again. If a stock drops from $10 to $5 there is no mathematical burden preventing the stock from rising to $10 again.

If you believe this, then you have a substantial reason to trade options as options don’t reflect this.

You can literally make billions because the pricing is so vastly different than your theory.

 

[vanzandt]

You need to forget about fundamentals as they are not only irrelevant 99% as far as price action....

RIGHT.... NVDA COMES OUT TOMORROW AND CUTS THEIR 2024 EARNINGS FORECAST BY 35% (FUNDAMENTALS) BUT THAT'S IRRELEVANT AS FAR AS PRICE ACTION.

THE STOCK WILL GO UP OR ELSE THE MARKETS WILL BE IN PERPETUAL DECLINE.

 

[vanzandt]

ET

 

[wxytrader]

Y'all need to read the first post to get back on track about what is being discussed. You have all gone off on tangents because you can't grasp the concept of what the traders fallacy is.

 

[wxytrader]

EXAMPLES PLEASE

The concept is the same whether it's a 50% drop or a 2% drop.

 

[tomkat22]

Make a list of things that makes a stock's price go up or down: good/bad earnings report,CEO cooking the books,a drug they been working on really does work,etc,etc,could be a pretty long list. Will MATH be written on that list?