Older I get, Less I understand... why is market up when Moore lost, rates likely going higher?

qxr1011 said:
Actually he is wrong again. :)

Market is always rational , people just not always understand its rational and the reasons behind it and therefore call the market irrational.

So the phrase should be rephrased : "Market can remains unexplainable much longer that you can stay solvent."
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Hmmm, so bitcoin run-up is rational?
At market tops price will often pop. Is this rational where price leaps then crashes?
No, I am not convinced of the theory market is always rational.
Markets driven by algos may be considered rational in terms of algo driven but they are not considered rational in terms of value.
It is possible to trade irrational markets using rational trading experience.
All kinda twists and turns in this. :)
 
themickey said:
Hmmm, so bitcoin run-up is rational?
At market tops price will often pop. Is this rational where price leaps then crashes?
No, I am not convinced of the theory market is always rational.
Markets driven by algos may be considered rational in terms of algo driven but they are not considered rational in terms of value.
It is possible to trade irrational markets using rational trading experience.
All kinda twists and turns in this. :)
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To bring up Keynes again, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Knowing that a bubble is irrational is a very different thing from being able to reliably profit from that knowledge. The number of investors who have put their money where their mouth is and correctly predicted multiple crashes without getting wiped out being short in the interim is vanishingly small for a reason.
 
beerntrading said:
Ok, so the first chart I posted didn't show up right for me, so I'll link direct to the article containing it: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dows-tumultuous-120-year-history-in-one-chart-2017-03-23

And the second doesn't seem right because of the linear scale. In the chart below, the line is aligned to the 1954 (Eisenhower Interstate) and 1994 pivots to bubbles. Note 1987 and 2008 also conform nicely to this line. If you go back further, it's a bit below the 1924 pivot--but that's probably the price weighting of the Dow. Here's a revised one (SPX, not Dow):
View attachment 180268
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Aren't you just making a case for long term buy and hold without leverage?
 
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themickey said:
Logical. Able to be calculated or anticipated via reasoning.
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whose reasoning? yours?

those who are buying bitcoin now have their reasons, and their logic

you may not agree with that reason and that logic but it's there

and as i said to the OP earlier: your rationalizations, while seemed logical, is simply revamping the facts to the version that does not contradict your beliefs
 
Sig said:
To bring up Keynes again, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Knowing that a bubble is irrational is a very different thing from being able to reliably profit from that knowledge. The number of investors who have put their money where their mouth is and correctly predicted multiple crashes without getting wiped out being short in the interim is vanishingly small for a reason.
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I think the best one can do is take small bites.
Impossible to know the full extent of a trend beforehand, therefore small nibbles along the way, depending on your trading time frames.
 
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qxr1011 said:
whose reasoning? yours?

those who are buying bitcoin now have their reasons, and their logic

you may not agree with that reason and that logic but it's there

and as i said to the OP earlier: your rationalizations, while seemed logical, is simply revamping the facts to the version that does not contradict your beliefs
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Yes, that is what makes the markets. We all have different reasons and logic.
 
themickey said:
I think the best one can do is take small bites.
Impossible to know the full extent of a trend beforehand.
Best which can be done is small nibbles along the way, depending on your trading time frames.
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Which could be said about any trading. Ergo knowing a market is irrational is essentially useless.
 
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