Older I get, Less I understand... why is market up when Moore lost, rates likely going higher?

vanzandt said:
One thing I always wondered... they always parade these charts of the Dow and S&P showing this slow and steady growth over the last century... thats all well and good...but show me a chart of the Dow 30 or the S&P with the original components.

If a company under-performs.... it gets the boot. Pretty easy to engineer an ever rising index when you can just kick the losers out at will.

But whadda I know.
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Wow...I missed that trend line...I'll have to take another swing at that.

While it's a good point, I wouldn't say it's necessarily relevant to my argument. I'm more concerned about shorter time frames as far as predicting future growth. I.e, comparing 1935 to 1925, and 2005 to 1995.

Single components broadly reflect the same pattern without the index manipulation (honestly, my first critique of the Dow would be price weighting before looking to the components).
 
It is understandable that each person is free to speculate what they want, but apparently, here was not successful in their future. The only thing we know is that cryptocurrencies are about to seize the market. The bankers are desperate because they can not find a way to end this fiebra, so do not let me inform you there is no cure!
 
Ok, so the first chart I posted didn't show up right for me, so I'll link direct to the article containing it: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dows-tumultuous-120-year-history-in-one-chart-2017-03-23

And the second doesn't seem right because of the linear scale. In the chart below, the line is aligned to the 1954 (Eisenhower Interstate) and 1994 pivots to bubbles. Note 1987 and 2008 also conform nicely to this line. If you go back further, it's a bit below the 1924 pivot--but that's probably the price weighting of the Dow. Here's a revised one (SPX, not Dow):
SPX.jpg
 
Sig said:
You're making a massive assumption here that markets and/or the economy do better when Republicans control the House, Senate, and Presidency. You may want to check that against empirical evidence.
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No. The tax bill is buoying the market it seems. SO if moore gets defeated and Susan Collins is waffling and one more republican waivers - then no tax bill.
qxr1011 said:
i think the quest for the reasons should not occupy the minds of traders and even more so of investors... because for traders it is irrelevant what drives the price , and investors occupied themselves with the value



remember old adage: "The two things an old man should never listen to:

- when his son says on the ski slop: "Dad follow me"

and on wall street: "This time is different" :)



nothing new:

"The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" - John Maynard Keynes


and your rationalization, while seemed logical, is simply revamping the facts to the version that does not contradict your beliefs :)
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Keynes is right again... !
 
comagnum said:
WHY the hell would the DOW be up so much after Moore loses and the Fed is primed to raise rates?!

* The seasonal influence in effect - this time of year is when the market historically tacks on its largest gains.

* There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it's the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. Paul Tudor Jones


https://seekingalpha.com/article/1183461-seasonal-patterns-in-stock-markets-319-years-of-evidence
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I knew wewould hear about "seasonal" market strength. But that is not what this is since if you observe the empirically "weaker" months this market still went higher and higher... and so on!

Tudor Jones quote makes sense for what we are seeing now. Thanks for that quote.
 
I know I may sound cliche saying this, but...the Market is part art, part science...everyday, each unique chart.
The quicker you realize this, the better you'll be off.

If the market was logical and square and easily predictable...everyone would be driving around in Ferrari's and have diamonds and alligator shoes and constantly high-fiving everyone around them.

You have to have a dynamic, loose, malleable mindset trading the market.
Have directional convictions before they semi-happen, along with the supporting triggering variables.

Be a cold-blooded, snake in the bushes just calmly patiently waiting...and watching...that ticker chart ball move to the right...you'll know when to strike.

Quite frankly, if you've been this long in the market and haven't succeeded yet, or realized its lessons and wisdoms,...chances are you will never. and are much better off just investing, buying and holding, for the long haul.

Make Trading Great Again 2018,
 
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iceman1 said:
Keynes is right again... !
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Actually he is wrong again. :)

Market is always rational , people just not always understand its rational and the reasons behind it and therefore call the market irrational.

So the phrase should be rephrased : "Market can remains unexplainable much longer that you can stay solvent."
 
News headlines and strap-lines create a false association between events and price moves. The word "as" is often a give-away: the journalist associates the two factors mentioned without being able to say they are cause and effect - but the psychological seed is planted.
e.g.
"Pound slips as inflation seen breaking 3%"
"Sterling rises as UK inflation jumps to 2.9%"
 
iceman1 said:
No. The tax bill is buoying the market it seems. SO if moore gets defeated and Susan Collins is waffling and one more republican waivers - then no tax bill.



Keynes is right again... !
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So Keynes would say that stimulating an economy that's already doing well with very low unemployment and incurring debt that makes it less possible to do this during the next economic downturn would be lunacy. Are you saying that the markets realize this and are going up (or at least not going down) because they think the tax bill may fail and that's a good thing?
 
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