I resent that. Come the weekend it is perfectly respectable for a trader to substitute one form of addictive behavior for another.
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Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts
- Thread starter John Merchant
- Start date
Since no one reads this thread I can be as insulting as my petty little personality wishes. To the best of my knowledge, only TWO charts were posted on ET today. We could kill petro prices simply by bottling ET's gaseous emisssions. That is, if we could stand the stink when we burnt them.
What could I tell you? Attached is my setup for tomorrow's trade in the YM. The pivots formulas are from Scorp^ and show the support and resistance. The pink number is the pivot based on today's OHLC. The red bar represents the pivot over the last four days according to my trading system signals. The light green squares note the projected High and Low based on a close greater than the open (as we had today). The Close is marked with a blue square. The numbers to the right of the S & R levels show the points of difference between two different price levels on the ladder. This spreadsheet has been modified a lot since I got it from Scorp^ a year and a half or so ago. Two days' Pivots from my trading system are displayed in the top graph, these are areas to watch. The bottom graph displays today's trades using the top and right scales while the last four days' trades are referenced on the left and bottom. What you are looking at is bins of trades. For example the green star in the middle shows two trades (right scale) that were in the neighborhood of $28.92 (see the column to the right and you'll notice two trades -- 24.00 & 25.00).
The percentages on the extreme left of the page are based on Chebyshev's inequality and are used to determine the approximate probability of occurence of the prices next to them. I wrote about this formula a year and a half or so ago in an exchange with BKuerbs and Swing Zones. Interestingly, James Sogi wrote a piece on this very topic yesterday on Vic Niederhoffer's website entitled "Probability Fields" http://www.dailyspeculations.com/
Over on the far right is the form I use to calculate the probabilities of different types of days occurring in markets I am following. That info is already in my journal. I'll try to post a spreadsheet of this picture in my journal later in the week when I have more time so everybody that wants can benefit. I realize some will need to use four days worth of pivots instead of a trading system but that is easy. Just takes some time.
The percentages on the extreme left of the page are based on Chebyshev's inequality and are used to determine the approximate probability of occurence of the prices next to them. I wrote about this formula a year and a half or so ago in an exchange with BKuerbs and Swing Zones. Interestingly, James Sogi wrote a piece on this very topic yesterday on Vic Niederhoffer's website entitled "Probability Fields" http://www.dailyspeculations.com/
Over on the far right is the form I use to calculate the probabilities of different types of days occurring in markets I am following. That info is already in my journal. I'll try to post a spreadsheet of this picture in my journal later in the week when I have more time so everybody that wants can benefit. I realize some will need to use four days worth of pivots instead of a trading system but that is easy. Just takes some time.
Attachments
I am rendered speechless, which is probably a service to ET. What was it Arthur C. Clarke said? "A sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."? All I can say is, how do you square that, if at all, with minor little events like Greenspan speeches, ten year note rate spikes, and two buck swings in oil? I mean, I have concluded that most TA, statistical or otherwise, is bullshit. I see only five modus operandi: take-your-money-fuck-the-net-position swings in low volume, fundamental reactions to "real" news, insiders manipulating the market back to where it was beforehand, PPT interventions, and let-the-herd-take-the-market-where-it-will-while we-make-the-spread in self-feeding high volume runs. All of which we saw today. Frankly, I am astonished that what you have works. If Harry had posted that I would have screamed "Bullshit!" Bravo! You could get rich touting that. My only caveat is that my backtesting of all my brilliant systems suggested that a $25 expectation was mighty thin gruel in the real world. You making that after commissions?
I forgot to include consolidations and false breakouts to shake out the weak hands (like me).
Those are points not dollars. I base all my systems on points testing. So multiply those points by $5. As for the pivots, I've recently said to watch price. This is like a reference card for me. I don't think about trading from this, I trade off the charts. This just gives me a reference when I get going and keeps me centered throughout the day. I rarely trade live without a reference like this. Practice trading has shown me what a mess I can make of things without an idea for the coming day. I think the stuff you are talking about is what pushes the market around but I can't monitor all that, just watch price.