Old Fart Bubble thoughts...no, not gas, China. :)

Ahhhh yes, just when is the stick going to come down on the giant craps table of the China market? Who knows, and I think the more interesting question is, what other market is going to bubble next since it is now a global market/trading place.

Right now a lot of money is chasing the US markets higher and avoiding the inflated China bubble, thus creating a sort of smaller short term bubble here.

All I know is that there is a ton of global expansion unfolding and many of the current markets are priced for perfection, any hiccups and volatility screams higher.

I think the new market reality is long periods of complacency, many buying tops and chasing followed by violent short corrections. Is this bubble creation/destruction, probably not. More like fits of reality washing over certain markets on occasion. Trading should become only more profitable as time passes and more "newbies" enter the markets.

What is of bigger concern to me is all the central bankers trying to keep growth prospects alive through financial tinkering. If this is truly a global marketplace, inflation/deflation is global as well. Currency manipulation/games is of bigger consequence than most care to believe as is inflation.

Good Luck!
 
Quote from drsteph:

Not really an old fart just yet, but I'm trying.

It is a foregone conclusion that China is 'bubbly', but the real question is - where are we in the bubble?
More...

according to what Ive been hearing there is a ton of cash not yet invested in chinese stocks...i am talking about money in savings accounts in China earning a couple of percent....so they might still be in the infant stage of a massive bubble; and we have no idea how big the bubble can increase in size before it pops...just cause things have tripled means nothing...i saw stocks go up 15 fold and still wanting to go higher back in the day...peace
 
I guess most of my seniors are too arthritic to type so here're some bullet points from the thread so far which I agree with - if anyone cares.

- increased volatility
- avg Joe (or mom) telling you about the mania
- avg Joe quitting their jobs to trade
- sympathetic moves in anything remotely related
- so far...

There's nothing new here. I'm sure any of the classic books on bubbles and manias describe similar symptoms.

There's an article about the chinese gov't removing some restrictions on the retail chinese investor.
I didn't need the details, but seems the party's getting bigger for them.

imho, it ain't over yet.

Time will tell.
 
After a lot of serious consideration on the matter...

I am doubling down on China after the end of October. Will hold until January and bail out near month end. Think it is a pure timing play. 20% stop for a 20-40% probable return. May do the same in india, but the timing there I think is much more difficult.

Absolutely want to cut my position by 50% by the time of the start of the olympics.

Nuts, but you gotta do it...
 
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