Thanks for the warning but I understand and respect your skepticism. I don't claim to be a master but If I had any idea that I could call the market as well as I can now 13 years ago; I would certainly be impressed. There is something about selflessly teaching or giving that gives back more than you put in.
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Old Dog new to E.T.
- Thread starter FXWave
- Start date
Thanks for the warning but I understand and respect your skepticism. I don't claim to be a master but If I had any idea that I could call the market as well as I can now 13 years ago; I would certainly be impressed. There is something about selflessly teaching or giving that gives back more than you put in.
Quote from BSAM:
UUUH-OH
Like I said; I will let my work do the talking. If you like it and can learn from my posts; then great!
Nothing good comes for free. I am a "do it yourself" type so I understand the types who want to figure things out on there own and thus support each other in a forum. That is why I am here. But I also know and understand people who really need that personal touch or that "express route" to learning and are more than willing to pay for your time to be taught the way they want. I have worked for company's who offered that support and the people who pay for help get the most out of it as they paid for it. Just as I and many of you have gotten a lot out of the personal work committed to self teaching yourself. Some people just are not into being self taught and would rather pay for it. Different strokes for diff folks but I will not spam. Contact me or not. No worries.
Quote from TheMan:
i am not sure how an abcd pattern qualifies as a great forecast
what else ya got?
hopefully no poems
Thanks for asking.
btw...the abcd pattern is uncharacteristic at tops and the EUR/JPY fell over 5000 pips in three months after that call.
Attachments
curious george
Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 124
Posted: Sun May 23, 2010 7:37 am Post subject:
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Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Posts: 124
Posted: Sun May 23, 2010 7:37 am Post subject:
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Fintan said:But as usual, only the emotionally-neutral contrarians will capitalize.
Good article Fintan.
I bought the dollar long/euro short in Nov09 and feel the trade is not over but Closed my 90% of long Dollar position on May 19th as the "wave counts" indicate the threat of a temporary reversal or retracement of the trend.
http://www.jamesdicksforexreport.co...ation-deflation-and-the-eurodollar-direction/
Here is an article I published October 1, 2009;
Inflation, deflation and the Eurodollar direction
Euro Dollar
One of the biggest debates between traders and economists is whether we will be seeing inflation or deflation in the future. While there is little debate over whether we will see deflation in assets, as both sides agree assets will continue to decline; there is a healthy debate over whether we will see deflation or inflation in our currencies.
Since all the major currencies are fiat currencies where a currency is not backed by anything other than the good faith of the country; there is nothing preventing the country from printing their currency into oblivion. Printing more currency increases the supply and thus further devalues the particular currency in the process. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke publicly stating that he would throw dollars out of helicopters; he is actually saying that a strong dollar would break the economy. More specifically, a stronger dollar would break the banks and hurt anyone with more debt than cash. The stronger your currency, the more difficult it is to pay off your debts.
The big difference between todayâs recession and yesterdayâs Great Depression of the 1930âs is that back in the 1930âs our currency was actually backed by the asset of gold while todayâs currency is not backed by an asset of limited supply like gold. When the growth cycle ended in the 1930âs, the debt owed could not be reduced by printing massive amount dollars so people lost everything as the value of money became so high that no one was willing to part with it. Jobs became more and more limited and paid less and less. What finally gave the economy relief is that the U.S. government abandoned the gold standard and replaced it with fiat currency. This allowed money to flow again as the value of money was reduced while the supply of money was increased. Currently, Bernanke claims that he will do the same. On the surface, if Bernanke were to print dollars into oblivion, the currency would eventually be worth less than the paper it is printed on.
From the standpoint of extremes, the Fed is faced with two major problems. As the Fed tightens the money supply, we should get a rapid economic collapse but if the Fed continues to print, we will get a slower decline where money is eventually worth less. The Fed canât disclose to the public the full details of their plans because the element of surprise is their edge. They tell us what they want us to know and nothing else.
In the history of fiat currencies, there has never been a case where a fiat currency has not failed as it is just a matter of time before they do. And there has never been a time where a fiat currency was allowed to appreciate in the middle of a financial crisis. Inflating a currency buys the banks more time as the availability of money increases.
Hillary Clinton was famous for saying, ânever waste a good crisis.â This quote did not settle well with most people as it suggests that crisis is good. In a financial crisis, more wealth is gained in a short amount of time by an informed few than any other time, while the opposite is true for masses. This should make one weary of the guys at the top influencing the crisis. Our supposed saviors in this most recent debacle have been the bearers of the greatest benefits, sighting Goldman Sachs as one example.
As I just mentioned, the historic consistency of fiat currency failure makes it both inevitable and expected. The biggest questions regarding the currency failure is the timing of the event. Over the past several years, we have had a stock market bubble and a real estate bubble help to extend our so-called economic growth. If the original conservative standards that gave both the stock market and real estate market credibility were not abandoned, then the financial system may have continued longer and timing of the collapse would have been that much more difficult. The irresponsible programs like the adjustable rate mortgages, securitized mortgages, easy credit, and unsubstantiated appreciations in Internet stocks all contributed to the enormous financial mess we are currently experiencing. With a little deductive reasoning, one might conclude that for the sake of narrowing a time when the collapse would occur; the people at the top actually encouraged the event to happen so they could reap the benefits of the crisis under their watch.
While we expect that the U.S. dollar will likely continue to be printed, the dollar is not the only currency to continue an inflationary path. Europeâs troubles have been quiet lately while it is well known that they face the same fiasco. At the present time, the international community favors European currencies as a recovery is supposedly in the works; yet the next wave of defaults in debt will likely favor the dollar and yen as safe havens. The charts are telling us this as the euro is setting up for a major reversal.
Last month I made a case for a stronger U.S. dollar. This month I am highlighting the Eurodollar as a pair positioned for a major reversal. While we are still waiting for confirmation of a top, the pair has made a pattern that is giving the appearance of a textbook flat pattern. While we recently noted that the dollar index has established a flat pattern, the Eurodollar completed its flat pattern this week as it hit its target of 1.4842. The pattern is on a grand scale as it is clearly seen on a weekly pattern representing 11 months of time. If we are correct in our analysis of the pattern, we could see prices fall roughly 3700 pips to 5900 pips with targets of 1.1151 to .8900. You should stay tuned to our analysis at PremiereTrade, as we watch for confirmation of this pattern in the near future.
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It has been said that "curiosity" killed the cat but it might be more accurately stated that "seriousity" killed the cat.