OK you wise guys - make your call on the 2022 low right here
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
Could be a late bull buying from an early bull who simply wants to take profits, too.
If a bull wants to sell, he is not a bull anymore.
The Fed will be forced to prop up markets by buying stocks.
They cannot let the retirees be forced back to work.
To use some actual numbers, let's look at the 5 worst yearly drawdowns since 1990. This is measured from the closing price on the prior year:
2008: -49.53 %
2002: -33.05 %
2020: -32.16 %
2001: - 28.44 %
2009: - 26.18 %
SPX closing price 2021: 4766,18.
10% down = 4289,50
20% down = 3812,75
30 % down = 3336,25
50% down = 2383,00
It's been 322 trading days measured from low to peak since we last had a correction of 10% or more. That was a -10,55 % correction over 15 trading days. So far, we're down 7,74 % over 12 trading days.
4397,94 was Friday's closing price. Assuming we're just seeing a normal correction at 10% - there should be another 100 points lower to go. I'll be watching that price level to see if the BTFD crowd shows up or if we trade through it. The latter could be a tell, IMO.
2008: -49.53 %
2002: -33.05 %
2020: -32.16 %
2001: - 28.44 %
2009: - 26.18 %
SPX closing price 2021: 4766,18.
10% down = 4289,50
20% down = 3812,75
30 % down = 3336,25
50% down = 2383,00
It's been 322 trading days measured from low to peak since we last had a correction of 10% or more. That was a -10,55 % correction over 15 trading days. So far, we're down 7,74 % over 12 trading days.
4397,94 was Friday's closing price. Assuming we're just seeing a normal correction at 10% - there should be another 100 points lower to go. I'll be watching that price level to see if the BTFD crowd shows up or if we trade through it. The latter could be a tell, IMO.
Some of those bad years were due to a massive crisis. If we were to look at the Dot Com, and focus on the SPX, the first down year from the top was roughly -7%. So if we matched -7%, in 2022, we'll be flat the rest of the year. I suspect we'll do better then that but we'll see. 2008/2009 and 2020 were worldwide massive crisis; nothing going on now is really a crisis that can't be moderated with monetary policy and time.
I am a disbeliever in this idea that massive amounts of money will leave QQQ stocks and go into GICs paying 1-2%, corporate bonds that lose money, or crypto. It'll find a home. Could move to the SPX or international markets or both.
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No. The Fed is dealing with the economy. Your conspiracy theories are stupid. The economy is not in a crisis quite the opposite really the supply chain can't keep up with demand. Those are clues as to why all these doomsday theories for markets have no point in 2022.
Nine Ender, what makes you say inflation isn't going to be a long term issue? How could it NOT be a long term issue when the politicians are showing no sign of printing money at anything less than ~30% annual clips for the never ending future (in fact want to accelerate it)? The fed could stop buying the bonds of course, but it will not, because interest rates would soar to insane levels, they will not let that happen.
You don't even seem to be aware of actual policy. Are you not aware what tapering is ? What on earth do you think interest rate hikes are all about ?
Ok let's look at Canada. QE ended at least 6 months ago. Did everything go to shit ? Actually, our market hit a new ATH last Monday. Our employment levels exceed February 2020 by a decent margin ( versus the US still 3 million more to go ). Now Main Street US may indeed have problems. I'm not sure how that translates to markets at all. The US has butchered Covid policy and the Republicans apparently are vetoing almost every piece of legislation they can. It's what Americans want I guess.
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