OK, who is going to lie and say they saw today's HUGE drop in the charts?
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
Can you post a chart with your observations when you have the time?
Once again, thanks for the amazing details.
On the day trading front, since it seems like you are a highly profitable trader, how many days in a month might would be losing days? And, how many losses have you seen in a row?
I find a Monte Carlos analysis is very interesting to look at. A great system with a 50% win rate and at least a 2:1 R:R ratio would clearly be printing money, but this will mean getting 4, 5, 6 losses in a row, a statistical guarantee. Do you suffer losing streaks like this, which then lead to some losing days? Or are you taking so many trades in a day that any losses are quickly recovered by the eventual wins coming up? Or perhaps your win rate is much higher?
The reason I ask because I'm sure many of us here get discouraged after lets say 3 losses in a row, and then we start to question our read on the market or our strategy. But its obvious that 3 losses would mean absolutely nothing to a system that is profitable if you're willing to take every trade as you should and just keep going.
So I'm curious to ask what types of drawdowns you go through and how you deal with them, and if several losses in a row cause you to do anything different.
It's pretty simple. Price came back to test an area where there was a strong selloff previously. That's how it looked on the 4H chart. The green area is where I expected for price to rally from but I don't expect much of a rally.
Of course, there's more to it than what I've described, mainly market structure, but that's how I pinpointed my selling area.
This is a 5m chart of what's currently going on. As I said before, I don't expect much of a rally. I was actually shorting from here as a trend continuation play but it looks like I may be too early (wrong) and might get stopped out.
I was also long the Dollar/Yen. I pinpointed the top of the rally but am now slapping myself for not shorting it.
EDIT: Here's a write-up that I did about the S&P on the 9th: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX500USD/h70wqikj-How-Far-Will-The-Indices-Correction-Go/
Ironically, I was long from around 4020, closed that position on the 12th after price first reached the major zone and shorted yesterday as price reacted.
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%% LOL
ITs hindsight \LOL\
but even in hindsight i was not exsepcting a big drop like that on that day.
but thats the advantage of short term [ bear inverse ]trading + long term[longs up investing]
Back [ hindsight , today sight]to my 200 dma average.
I still like the old IBD rule '' Dont Quibble over a Quarter $00.25] + Miss The Move. Started in the days of a 25 cent bid\ ask\LOL + true
. I wish op Soy would put that in his plan.....
After yesterday's massive drop, there are bound to be some social media clowns who are preaching....Buy The Dip and funds as well....to provide support for today, in spite of all indicators and signs saying it should generally be a down day. That's why the market is generally flat, with a technical slight dip down which I anticipated. If the market does decide to go up for the remainder of the day, it should only be a marginal, trace, movement up.
Ken Calhoun 2022
You mean ETers are not "pros-r-us"?