OK, who is going to lie and say they saw today's HUGE drop in the charts?

Stock market never follow news but news does. Because market works in cycles without caring about what is happening in news but news cares about the happening in stock market. Don't forget the bull run in corona where we were surrounded by negative news. But market played its role by giving all time high. Forget the inflation, recession, budget and President. Believe in price action , the most reliable tool in the world of stock market.
 
comagnum said:
I caught the melt down. The estimates I looked at had CPI higher, projected the move down NQ -450+ pts based on what happened last month.

Shorted in 2 accts, closed out the positions

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@comagnum
Just for clarification, the estimates you saw were higher than the *consensus* estimates and you believed they would be more accurate than consensus? How did you choose those estimates as being more accurate than consensus? Or are you saying something else?

Not being facetious. I had a model that did this for commodity reports on softs and there was an edge, but not enough to be worth trading. Threw the model in the garbage because the edge was too small compared to normal price noise. (Classic case of something statistically significant that wasn't practically significant.)
 
The higher the Fed hikes rates the more likely the Dems lose the Senate.
Sticky inflation does not respond too quick fixes or gaslighting.
Political, pathological liars should not be in charge of the economy.
 
Statistical Trader said:
Just for clarification, the estimates you saw were higher than the *consensus* estimates and you believed they would be more accurate than consensus? How did you choose those estimates as being more accurate than consensus? Or are you saying something else?
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The factor for me was the mkt run up, to many people on one side of the boat & inflation has been beat only when interest rates are 1x-2x higher than CPI - The Fed is way behind the curve.

Here is the clip of the Adobe CPI estimates, which fit what I perceived, estimate begins @ 6:30.

 
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Statistical Trader said:
@comagnum
Just for clarification, the estimates you saw were higher than the *consensus* estimates and you believed they would be more accurate than consensus? How did you choose those estimates as being more accurate than consensus? Or are you saying something else?

Not being facetious. I had a model that did this for commodity reports on softs and there was an edge, but not enough to be worth trading. Threw the model in the garbage because the edge was too small compared to normal price noise. (Classic case of something statistically significant that wasn't practically significant.)
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Excellent questions, inquiring minds want to know!!!
 
!TD.png
 
i always know the big moves cause i know what the big players are doing. i get this report a day in advance everyday.

Start Report
*********************************************
Date: 09/13/2022 - MES
*********************************************
Todays Price Stats
*********************************************

Big Run Long ....... : 4183.75


Big Run Short ...... : 4091.75

*********************************************
 
SoyUnGanador said:
Because if the inflation numbers hadn't come in bad it would not have happened. I.E. today's drop is a result of unexpected inflation news, not become of some prior price action that shows up on a chart with squigglies on it.
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I was suspicious of this rally as late as today 15 minutes prior to the release, but I didn't trade it.

I think we can say with great certainty that the markets wouldn't have tanked as aggressive as today on good inflation numbers, but how can we really know for sure that the markets wouldn't have headed lower eventually anyway?
 
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