OK, this is getting ridiculous.. how is EURUSD now over 1.42?? (4/1/11)

Quote from FJMcC:

If you haven't noticed, i trade patterns so i will not consider turning bullish until the proverbial Low, High, Higher Low, Higher High plays out in the time frame I trade. I dont go down lower than 30 Minutes so.............I take shorts or nothing for what looks like a while.

To answer your question though, next support is around .4200. I imagine it could rally to .4400 first, but the plan in my opinion, is figuring out a way to profit on a move to 4200. Price action price action price action price action.............................................
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I think I know your rationale behind .4200. :)
 
Quote from FJMcC:

The more I think about it, the fundamentals of this very crowded trade "changed" so much yesterday, that who knows?

Fed and ECB call the tune, we all must dance to it. To paraphrase Soros.

This trade went from Trichet being the watchdog and anchor to helicopter Ben, to him now being his getaway driver. That is a very big change conceptually, especially after the first rate cut. To not raise or cut in consistent matter, leaves the market confused and jittery. It makes sense for Big Specs and Real Money to take this trade down. Who knows? We live in a very fickle world.
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IMHO the automated systems have taken over from rationale. Where in the past floor traders would have said "this is far enough" now the bots just flip direction and start trading in the new direction. And when the move is parabolic then there is no longer anyone taking the trade on the other side so it gets into a free fall. (in currencies down OR up)

The whole scenario reminds me of the flash crash of last year.

You really think that the economy of a society changes in 48 hours so much to warrant these kind of moves? Something is really out of whack.
 
Quote from Lucrum:

I could see 1.50 printing soon.
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1.4340 (down 600 pips from 1.4940).

Would it be "ridiculous" if you were short?

If you were to surrender to price would it be with your ten up or with your 20 up?
 
tradingjournals,

What does this post mean? Pardon my ignorance...when you guys post about trading it sometimes goes over my head.

Have you and Lucrum made up or do I close this thread....? It is your choice.

ES


Quote from tradingjournals:

1.4340 (down 600 pips from 1.4940).

Would it be "ridiculous" if you were short?

If you were to surrender to price would it be with your ten up or with your 20 up?
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Quote from Lucrum:

I could see 1.50 printing soon.
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I plan to step aside.Since you asked, I try to answer your question below. Have a good trading,and I wish you well in your work. Thanks.

The main thrust of the post is a quote from the post below listed in page http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=218121&perpage=6&pagenumber=2 (changing the words "long" for "short" and 1.42ish with 1.49ish). The response essentially comments on the poster post using a post by the same poster, to show that the poster's answer is either valid for both cases, or invalid in neither case. The readers can decide which is which.


Quote from Lucrum:

1.4340 [up 140 pips from 1.42]

Would it be "ridiculous" if you were long?
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Quote from tradingjournals:

1.4340 (down 600 pips from 1.4940).

Would it be "ridiculous" if you were short?
More...
 
Not trying to get cocky, but it's like golf. Sometimes a chart, just like a shot, seems to fit your eye, and that usually leads to success. The key, I guess, is limiting action to when things fit like that.

In fact, I think my last trade call was born out of hubris from my current lucky streak. My entry was a little premature, and we are taking a little heat that I am not comfortable with. I hope this retest of the previous hourly consolidation is almost over, so we can move stops toward B/E. that would happen on a breach of .4260. I never breathe until I cut off that initial risk. probably will resolve itself toward the close.
 
FJMcC,

I am curious...do you ever cut off your risk more slowly by raising your stop up partially?...maybe not all the way up to BE...I know you probably use the charts to determine where you set your levels at...But I have to ask anyways!

What are the risk to benefit ratios of your trades may I ask and do you trade 1 minute...5 minute....or do you have more wiggle room?

Please excuse me if you already have posted answers to this...there are a lot of pages here to review.

It would be nice to see how you trade and your "thinking" to see if I am real far off with my own trading style and thoughts.

Keep up the good trading.

ES


Quote from FJMcC:

Not trying to get cocky, but it's like golf. Sometimes a chart, just like a shot, seems to fit your eye, and that usually leads to success. The key, I guess, is limiting action to when things fit like that.

In fact, I think my last trade call was born out of hubris from my current lucky streak. My entry was a little premature, and we are taking a little heat that I am not comfortable with. I hope this retest of the previous hourly consolidation is almost over, so we can move stops toward B/E. that would happen on a breach of .4260. I never breathe until I cut off that initial risk. probably will resolve itself toward the close.
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