Had a trailing stop hit at 1.4790 for a nice 4 session for 147 point profit. Was very tempted to jump back in and try to squeeze some more ticks out of EUR, but am glad I didn't. Was able to play some countertrend moves short term in the EUR/CHF to keep things chugging along, and to help me avoid the "broadening pattern" currently playing out in EUR/USD.
Where do we go from here? As a breakout trader I fear and respect the pattern forming in the hourly right now. Too many good traders get chopped trying to buy or sell the momentum during this type of congestion.
However.............Using classical methods, a break below the most recent low (third touch of the bottom of the pattern low boundary) @ 1.4753 could lead to a nice move to next logical support ing the 1.460/80 area. Be careful though, you are fighting a powerful larger trend and this collpse could happen in a matter of 4 or 5 bars after breakdown. As always, stay on the risk like glue.
The continuation breakout could prove to be dramatic, if and when it occurs. Using a break of 1.4891 as an entry point, there is a reasonable chance that the 1.5150 area could be challenged on the next upward wave. 1.49 has proven stiff resistance with 4 runs and three failures. If breached it should melt like butter. Lot of profit taking in the high 800's, and as we all know, the suckers are using the 49 handle to define risk in there countertrend trades. This market could run if we trade through those stops and the trend followers and momentum players jump back on. It is also worth noting that momentum in the down swings has been tepid, while at the upside of the pattern momentum readings have been solid if not spectacular.
Waiting patiently, trying to avoid the chop. See you at .5150,
Wish I could post charts but dont know how.
LOL Again I have to ask, who here in this forum do you think is naive and or dumb enough to fall for your bull shit?