Quote from FJMcC:
I don't know what models trade journal is talking about, but i think if you look at a few different chart time frames from montyly
n to 4 hour, the question isn't if we are going to print 1.51, but how soon.
E is setting up beatifully, and a break above 1.51 has the potential to have a quick run up to the pre Crisis highs. Scary if that little double top reversal on the weekly gives way. For what it's worth, I have a very simply defined target of 1.93 by the end of '14.
From the June 02 break of an 18 month triangle, the pair experienceda very smooth trend that never retraced more than roughly 25%. From .9100 all the way to the pre crisis high of 1.6080, this trend was tradable and consistent. The 08 to 11 action has been almost a perfect ABC correction. B, at 1.5153 looks very important. Surely there will be huge increases in volatility and daily ranges as the market is pulled into this level.
The Euro is is setting up a very nice risk reward trade for the long term speculator. Simple classical technical analysis points to a target of 1.93 as conservative swing out of this correction pattern.
All in all, get ready for a wild ride. Can we get and stay long in this market? Long term options? Why does Geithner lie when the chart is so clearly demonstrating that the US is specifically going to devalue our way into prosperity, while every politician and central banker claims the contrary?
By the way, I think we should be around 2.35 in '17/'18. Cheers.
This thread is full of retail, and the majority is bullish eur/usd.
air never went above 1.4784 since the post. So far +10 pips for me. My models are winning again, and you are losing again.