OK Boomer, Who’s Going to Buy Your 21 Million Homes?

[nooby_mcnoob]

But the banks aren't in the the 'owning homes' business, so they will sell the units once the reverse mortgage is complete or the owners pass on. So still going to be sold.

Good point. Would like to see stats of what happened in 2008 to make any extrapolation. From what I understand, homes were left empty for months.

 

[destriero]

But the rental income doesn't need to support fantasy valuations, it just needs to pay off whatever loan is remaining, if any as well as property taxes. If you're in a shit area, property taxes will be low anyway.

The only way high valuations would change (IMO) is a rise in interest rates which is great for people with cash reserves who want to buy a home. So not millennials.

But it does. It's a poor investment if it's locking in a loss. US RE operates on the greater fool theory and it all comes to an end, eventually. The owner's personal liquidity aside... why hold the property if you're not living in it and cannot meet the nut from a 4% loan and taxes?

Been to Chicago lately?

Anything over $500K (which is everything) is a loser in the Tahoe area on rental-return. Has been for decades. When equilibrium is reached we'll have a bottom, but that's a 40% haircut from here.

Boomers selling. Declining demographic. The only population growth is in low-middle income Hispanics.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

But it does. It's a poor investment if it's locking in a loss. US RE operates on the greater fool theory and it all comes to an end, eventually. The owner's personal liquidity aside... why hold the property if you're not living in it and cannot meet the nut from a 4% loan and taxes?

Been to Chicago lately?

Anything over $500K (which is everything) is a loser in the Tahoe area on rental-return. Has been for decades. When equilibrium is reached we'll have a bottom, but that's a 40% haircut from here.

Boomers selling. Declining demographic. The only population growth is in low-middle income Hispanics.

So this is why all the talk about allowing illegal immigration. The natives (no pun intended) won't prop up prices.

Again, boomers didn't and wouldn't have paid $500K for their homes. They would have paid (say) $200K+interest. They can afford to rent it out endlessly because it's likely already paid off.

You can probably expect haircuts in areas where no one wants to live. Those could be opportunities, if you're OK dealing with meth and crack heads. I know I wouldn't!

 

[Sig]

So this is why all the talk about allowing illegal immigration. The natives (no pun intended) won't prop up prices.

Again, boomers didn't and wouldn't have paid $500K for their homes. They would have paid (say) $200K+interest. They can afford to rent it out endlessly because it's likely already paid off.

You can probably expect haircuts in areas where no one wants to live. Those could be opportunities, if you're OK dealing with meth and crack heads. I know I wouldn't!

So no-one is talking about allowing illegal immigration except the right wing echo chamber. It's a very different thing to say a physical wall with Mexico is ineffective and stupid or that having local cops act as immigrations enforcement makes everyone less safe because illegal migrants become afraid of local law enforcement or that separating kids from their parents and putting them in concentration camps is bad, or saying kids brought to the U.S. against their will as babies should be deported to a place they don't even speak the language..... then to say that you want to allow illegal immigration. I know there's some minor subtlety there that the black and white crowd sometimes has a hard time with, much easier to paint those you disagree with as advocating for breaking that law than trying to understand their actual position.

On the other hand, almost anyone who's seriously looked at the economics of immigration is advocating that allowing more legal immigration would significantly help the declining birth rate and boomer retirement issues, not to mention the fact that there are whole sectors of the U.S. economy that migrants are happy to take jobs in and non-migrants refuse to work in. And to make illegal immigration legal immigration you simply change immigration law.

 

[destriero]

I haven’t read the article, but I assume that the issue isn’t retired Boomers, but dead Boomers. So unless your sibling is going to buy you out the house will be sold. I’d think that the 21MM estimate is conservative.

 

[Bugenhagen]

Well it will be just a little bit more but all of them will be needed and then some

 

[destriero]

I suffer from a lack of hybrid vigor but my line survived the Plague so I’ll still be around to turn off the lights when Spanish Flu 2025 hits. A lot of vacant homes in 2026.

 

[Bugenhagen]

I suffer from a lack of hybrid vigor but my line survived the Plague so I’ll still be around to turn off the lights when Spanish Flu 2025 hits. A lot of vacant homes in 2026.

Due to someone living with us having a lung problem I have superb air filtration. I'll just wait here until everyone is dead or got better hehe.

I saw this by accident just now, published in 2012.. I think South Park foresaw Stephen Miller's final solution to immigration.

 

[murray t turtle]

Same. Do you think you'll get a good deal? I had to pay about $400/sq foot to get a log cabin that no one wanted to buy because it was way out there, too big and was on the market for like 2 years.

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LOL 2 years=the market was telling all,it was overpriced, even if owner had more than that in it.I like REAL Estate way out, myself ; but many like sardine crowded cans, or right on a noisy crowded, polluted hi=way. LOL,

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

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LOL 2 years=the market was telling all,it was overpriced, even if owner had more than that in it.I like REAL Estate way out, myself ; but many like sardine crowded cans, or right on a noisy crowded, polluted hi=way. LOL,

Yes and if the can afford to hold till a sufficiently interested buyer shows up... That's what I saw happening in my search. For one they don't actually list all the houses for sale to keep supply low. I saw so many places that had been on the market for more than six months.

This to me seems more like what will happen with boomer homes.