We now know clearly that the Fed will bailout banks/insurance companies, anybody who will pose a threat to the so-called system.
Now the market will focus back on what really matters, future earnings. And that looks horrid. Unemployment is going higher. Consumer can no long access the housing ATM. This is not like 9/11, when the credit/mortgage derivatives and housing bubble was in its early stages. That is over. That was the driver of growth from 2003 to 2007. What will be the driver of growth now? Emerging markets? BRICs? In a world bumping up on its limits of commodities, do you really think that China can grow 10% forever? China will just end up being a competitor to "emerged" markets for access to commodities, not a driver of its growth.
There could be a sucker's rally based on the relief that the center has held and there has been no financial armageddon. But the market wasn't pricing in much of a risk to any of these catastrophes anyway. Equities have been relatively sanguine in the face of all the bad news the last couple of days. We are down 3% from the Friday close when most optimistically expected the Fed to bailout LEH and possibly AIG. This is hardly a blip. There will be more pain ahead as the market refocuses on the global recession.
Now the market will focus back on what really matters, future earnings. And that looks horrid. Unemployment is going higher. Consumer can no long access the housing ATM. This is not like 9/11, when the credit/mortgage derivatives and housing bubble was in its early stages. That is over. That was the driver of growth from 2003 to 2007. What will be the driver of growth now? Emerging markets? BRICs? In a world bumping up on its limits of commodities, do you really think that China can grow 10% forever? China will just end up being a competitor to "emerged" markets for access to commodities, not a driver of its growth.
There could be a sucker's rally based on the relief that the center has held and there has been no financial armageddon. But the market wasn't pricing in much of a risk to any of these catastrophes anyway. Equities have been relatively sanguine in the face of all the bad news the last couple of days. We are down 3% from the Friday close when most optimistically expected the Fed to bailout LEH and possibly AIG. This is hardly a blip. There will be more pain ahead as the market refocuses on the global recession.