OJ/ Coffee Random Musings

Lots of vol in OJ today, prolly a top for now. All this drought silliness must be priced in and I'm short but carefully so.
 
Now Soybeans are rallying and looks like wheat has put in a strong bottom but corn is struggling to bottom out. The better trade is buy Wheat. I'm long today 5260 Stops somewhere 5100
 
I wonder what is happening with coffee. I notice a gap on the May 2009 coffee futures chart and three small coffee company stocks appear recently on the new 52 week high price list.

CBOU CARIBOU COFFEE COMPANY NASD
DDRX DIEDRICH COFFEE NASD
GMCR GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS INC. NASD
 

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I notice coffee futures price values continue increasing and with gaps.

http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/6/8/124163786.html

"So far, world demand remains steady despite the ongoing world economic crisis, while tight supplies of Colombian and to a lesser extent, Central American origins, could make the supply-demand balance even more fragile. This is particularly worrying since stocks are at their lowest recorded levels in many exporting countries," the ICO said."

"Information received from exporting countries indicates that the volume of opening stocks for crop year 2008-09 is estimated at 17.24 million bags, the lowest ever recorded by the organisation."
 

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Firstly, as K is in delivery, you would do well to watch N.

Yes the differentials are wide w/ colombia origins at huge premium to NY (ICE). At least +.75 over KC. Perhaps also bullish is KC being a follower to other commodities last yr, and bit over done on downside in relation to actual fundamentals (smaller crop yr as well)

Also a positive moving spread in the diff between KC and London robustas showing relative strength. As well as a normal seasonal up movement toward late May/early Jun for the frost/freeze premium. Another obvious fact is Bras.real starting to bounce against USD.

Here's a couple charts I like to look at:

http://futuresource.quote.com/chart...=='KC'+/+'RC-ENC'&s=&s=&p=W&v=15&b=BAR&d=HIGH

I've been long playing the seasonal and won't be surprised to see 140... but 130 may be tough.... but who knows what the weather will bring..

take a gander at http://www.coffeetradersforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs53x/webbbs_config.pl

Some smart coffee traders over there...

cheers
 
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