OJ/ Coffee Random Musings

good call on coffee shagi, i got out of it friday. have a long oj, feels weak to me though. Riv I will look into those options spreads, cocoa hit 3000!! good job
 
dumped oj, for a loss. Feels weak. Coffee does feel strong but this rally is dollar decline rally imo. I could be wrong though, I'm going ot wait till harvest picks up pace to get short and that will probably be around 145 but right now looking long only
 
oj has been wild today, days liek this are great to make money just put a pos. on and go with it. I am late to the party though! Just stay on the sidelines. added 2 aug/oct cattle at 7.30 on friday. see what those are going to do today. I really like an 8.00 corn straddle fellas, Corn is strong as hell but the carry spreads show that there is PLENTY of corn. july/dec was only 8 cents to dec 2 months ago and despite all the planting delays has gradually grown wider to full carry. Something isn't right and I tell you that the commercials rarely are so I'm gonna say the fucking fundies are.
 
hmmm coffee working back alot of those highs. something has got to give and when it does this market is gonna fly. I still don't know which way. It seems bullish but fundamentally im leaning bearish with the big harvest. hmmm
 
I got long another Cocoa 2800/2900 Call spread at 60 pts today. I actually made em 60/65 and got hit. Seems the pit is a seller of this spread or at least my bids always get hit and offers are not lifted..

Coffee had range expansion and one trades it in the direction of the breakout. Nice call by Shagi. Fundamentals and bias would lead me to have a bearish tilt to this, but that doesn't matter at all. Trade the charts I guess.

Hey Rtrader, what is this Cattle spread you put on?

In the corn, you are saying that since the market is trading at full carry it contradicts this "tightness" that is being built into pricing and hence think we have capped out?
 
I'd imagine with cocoa closing over 3000 youll get some selling of that spread out of the pit. Finally eh? yeah coffee was weird today, almost shorted it at 142.00 ish and then it dropped like a rock and almost got a short at iin at 139 but got nervous and took it off. Trade the charts is right man, but the charts on coffee look confused depending what you look at. i put on aug/oct live cattle at 7.30. I've been putting them on for a while now, they work every year and they have never ever been this wide. 5.20 was the previous wide high and it has been to 8.00 this year. It makes me question what is going on and alot has to do with the corn market.

With july/dec at full carry it means that the commercials are not hoarding corn. They are not concerned with the amount of corn left over. There apparently is ALOT of corn somewhere, and the situation is not that dire apparently. I'm just analying what I see in the spreads. They could change quick of course. I digress though, thats why i like a 7.50 or an 8.00 straddle selling it. basically gives you a 4 dollar range for corn to trade in between now and dec. something to think about def.

Anything else?
 
So let's see. You sold October at a 730 pt premium to August Cattle right?

Basically saying the back months are pricing in too much corn tightness and difficulty in brining supplies of fat cattle to the market by fall.


Jul/Dec Corn settled at 33.25 cents. You're saying that if we saw hoarding we'd have July trading much higher versus Dec yah?
 
it wasnt an option spread. I have been putting these things on forver and i was up pretty good but recently they have shot back on me. I bought aug and sold oct at a premium of 7.30 to the oct side. I'm expecting it to get narrow. It's staying static, but the roll into aug has begun and will help my auggie well hopefully pressurin oct
 
oh yeah july/dec is full carry, meaning that there is absolutely ZERO commerical interest in hoarding corn. Now take a look at the 09 version of that spread, july is 1.00 dollar! over dec! now something isnt right? We have all these floods andsupposedly these horrible yields, but there is zero urgency to hoard the corn. Where as last year in wheat we had march go 3.00 over july! There was actual urgency in that market! I do definitely feel for the farmers in the midwest. 8.00 corn and the can't cover it. Also one thing to watch for is the guys that did contract their corn at 5.00 or 6.00 a bushel well alot of them are probably going to have no corn or very little, so watch for some short covering to occur as the summer presses on. Yields and everything aren't totally known yet and July will be a big month, the forecast is getting a little more helpful for those guys thank god
 
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