OJ/ Coffee Random Musings

Civer - Cocoa is strong the double top you talk about - is see that as a temporary psychological price number blip more like oil @ $100, Euo @ 1.5, Gold @ 1000. The May to June sideways action failed to move prices lower
 
I just realized my analysis on Coffee is moronic. A weaker Real should prompt HIGHER prices holding everything else equal as USD gains more purchasing power and can buy more Coffee in BRL terms.


So that's long coffee. Not short.
 
i do agree that the month coffee chart does look very supportive. But fundamentally I still think we are going short, you are very right about 130.00 ish range. The commercials are buying heavily at that level and the producers are selling heavily at that level. It's a very interersting market, I've made a ton in it even dumping these two stupid impulsive 134.00 shorts I made last night. Trading is a bout learning with everything yo do good and bad, and this is no different than the others. You guys looking at any other markets?
 
stopped out at 137.50, (i trade sep) Trading perfectly lately then make one dumb impulsive trade that I had a horrible feeling about. oh well. You live you learn. OJ looking good, and Criv I have a question about your Real analysis, wouldn't a weak Real strong Dollar push coffee down? Maybe I'm wrong but that would make sense to me. I'll have to think about it haha. Anyways good trading today guys
 
i shorted one at 137.50. making some of my dough back at least. I am a real estate agent and I have a class to attend today for continuing education and I totally skipped it for this lol, coffee market is way to lucrative today my friends!
 
Rtrader, yeah, my analysis is flawed in coffee. At any rate: just trade the charts right?

Happy you were able to make some dough back on that reshort at 137.5.

Cocoa took out the previous high so I'm happy about that. I offered my 2800/2900 Sep Call spreads at 65 pts and no takers.

Hopefully it will be a runaway train and I can hold til Aug expiry - it's just so darn long though.
 
In August Coffee Options:

with 30 days to expiration:

A short 125/130/135 butterfly settled at 410pts

A short 130/135/140 butterfly settled at 430pts


I.e.

Long the 130 calls & puts and short the 125 put and 135 call for the first example

Long the 135 calls & puts and short the 130 put and 140 call in the second example

A short butterfly's max profit is the diff b/w strikes less the premium paid.


With the short butterflies trading almost close to full valuation (500 pts) - mkt is telling you we will have a breakout from the range either way.

Any other conclusions or views? Risk 430 to make 70 pts?
 
Oh yeah I totally agree that it's going to break one way or the other there is no doubt. The monthly tells me long, it looks awful positive but the daily and weekly are alot more congested. Riv I guess my question to you would be; what chart do you use?
 
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