long at 9458
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OJ/ Coffee Random Musings
- Thread starter criveratrading
- Start date
Quote from Rtrader2525:
i covered, albeit too soon. Oh well still looking to get short. The coffee market has been berry berry good to me. Waiting for a pop to reshort.
I reckon you exit a bit early - Coffee is gonna collapse completely this week.
The only soft contract going up is Cocoa - JO/SB/LB/SB are all firmly down
i see a 50 lot ask at 133.50 on sep. You think it's noise? I dont think thats a horrible level to get short
I still need to find a darn put to buy in Coffee. Any selections you guys like?
Cocoa acted well today; no changes with that position.
Good trading to all who have sold rallies on KC.
YT as far as your short straddle in beans and KC go, I'm not sure I'm a vol seller here; the risk for a break this week in KC I think is high... and with the swings in Beans I'm not sure I have the balls to put that trade on. Good luck though.
Cocoa acted well today; no changes with that position.
Good trading to all who have sold rallies on KC.
YT as far as your short straddle in beans and KC go, I'm not sure I'm a vol seller here; the risk for a break this week in KC I think is high... and with the swings in Beans I'm not sure I have the balls to put that trade on. Good luck though.
hey riv hope all is well. I will look at an options chain tommorow. I wonder if tommorow we see a 5 cent UP day in coffee? The way that market has been going it wouldn't suprise me. Im thinking about shorting tonight anyways. I'm too tired to type, hope everyone is having a good week
am short two at around 134.00 it was an impulsive trade and I made it before I went to bed, I hate adding to a losing position but i will at 139 here soon
Trade in the direction of the breakout I assume. I have no edge being short or long in this range in coffee but agree with you Shagi.
Buy stops above 138
Sells stops below 130
We should expect range expansion and volatility to climb. At some point today when I was trying to buy my coffee puts I wondered if a monthly configuration pointed to upside potential more than downside. Fundamentals and my view on the Brazilian Real will keep me playing this from the short side, but need a breakdown for confirmation....
Plus, I kind of want to hedge my long cocoa exposure. Cocoa has been acting well but I'm concerned with today's double top at 2920.
The 2800/2900 call spreads, purchaed on average for 45.5 pts expire Aug 1st.
In case anyone missed the Crop Progress Report:
Corn:
60% G-E vs. 65% last week
31% Fair
9% P-VP
89% emerged vs. 98% Yr Ago, 95% Avg
Soybeans:
57% G-E
35% Fair
8% P-VP
56% Emerged vs. 80% Yr Ago, 74% Avg
Spring Wheat:
63% G-E
33% Fair
4% P-VP
98% Emerged vs. 99% Yr Ago, 96% Avg
USD had a strong day. Figured the move in 2yr treasuries was enough to signal strong convictions of an inflection point in the market. I personally am not convinced that the buck is out of the woods. Initially Crude had rallied close to 138 again this a.m. when the dollar was acting strongish.
So, strong USD, bearish BRL, bearish Coffee, and long Cocoa - and not sure I really have more to argue on the long side of that trade other than the chart looks strong and LIFFE Cocoa already took out its previous high..
Buy stops above 138
Sells stops below 130
We should expect range expansion and volatility to climb. At some point today when I was trying to buy my coffee puts I wondered if a monthly configuration pointed to upside potential more than downside. Fundamentals and my view on the Brazilian Real will keep me playing this from the short side, but need a breakdown for confirmation....
Plus, I kind of want to hedge my long cocoa exposure. Cocoa has been acting well but I'm concerned with today's double top at 2920.
The 2800/2900 call spreads, purchaed on average for 45.5 pts expire Aug 1st.
In case anyone missed the Crop Progress Report:
Corn:
60% G-E vs. 65% last week
31% Fair
9% P-VP
89% emerged vs. 98% Yr Ago, 95% Avg
Soybeans:
57% G-E
35% Fair
8% P-VP
56% Emerged vs. 80% Yr Ago, 74% Avg
Spring Wheat:
63% G-E
33% Fair
4% P-VP
98% Emerged vs. 99% Yr Ago, 96% Avg
USD had a strong day. Figured the move in 2yr treasuries was enough to signal strong convictions of an inflection point in the market. I personally am not convinced that the buck is out of the woods. Initially Crude had rallied close to 138 again this a.m. when the dollar was acting strongish.
So, strong USD, bearish BRL, bearish Coffee, and long Cocoa - and not sure I really have more to argue on the long side of that trade other than the chart looks strong and LIFFE Cocoa already took out its previous high..