OJ/ Coffee Random Musings

Rtrader...I do trade the 30yr (ZB) from time to time...it has been easy money lately, short the last 3 pops to 120ish and take profits a few days later....have been taking profits too soon probably. Do you trade it outright or just look at it to aid your commodity trading?
 
Rtrader...maybe if we can hold this gap up today in lumber we'll get a nice little island reversal going for us. I could go for that...otherwise I gotta take delivery on about 2.2 million board ft....guess I could build a summer home?? :D

Also, coffee has reversed nicely....I'm still holding my long position from the close on Monday....looking for a re-test of 120. Stop now right at 108 (breakeven), so at least it can't lose money on me!
 
hahaha, i just trade what i see. At heart I am a spread trader, but my grain spreads have been boring. I really enjoy the soft markets and have had good success with them. I was just flipping thorugh charts and noticed the H&S. Yes it appears as if lumber is gaining strength, what a bargain at these prices imo. same with coffee. I am gonna wait for a bpullback to get long, I didnt buy any on this dip down.
 
Much of the upside in commodities today has to do with action of the dollar over the last 2 days and the anticipated 50bp rate cut. Normal correction in progress.

Despite the cut - the dollar will most probable settle around 85/84 area - before making another major run up. Why with rate cut it should be dollar bearish?

- simple other central banks will also cut much more agressively than FED as they have more room to play with but FED cuts are now over and done with after today, so that will boost the dollar long term and commodities will come under pressure again - thats my 2cents but then i dont trade my 2 cents :p
 

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good call shaqi, you always post good charts and more offten than not you are right. Are you purely a tech. trader? Also TX good call in lumber I'm break even finally. But it looks like its going long
 
Cheers. I use the same approach all markets- im an avid tech geek. but then i also consider fundamentals only to increase my confidence or judgement in what the techies show. :p
 
Thanks Rtrader...we all get lucky sometimes! I'm actually working some sell orders in lumber right now...I think it may go the way of the grains and trade two-sided for a while, so if I can knock out $10-15 bucks before the chop I'll do it. Just my thoughts.

I am eying grains still on a pullback, and I decide to dabbled with March cotton and bought today at 50.00, tried to buy Dec. coffee at 111.00 but wasn't quick enough.
 
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