How do you manage the contango effect? The contract prices for several months from now is about 40% - 50% higher than today's price. Buying at today's price is not very effective, as the rollover to the new contract will cause major gap-ups.
What I'm saying is that although today's price is about $40, a July's contract is above $50. So the question is not "do you think oil will be above today's prices in six months?", but "do you think oil be be above $50 in six months?"
Oil is bouncing, I think it will test the 55 range by mid Jan. OPEC is finally complying with their cuts. China and US will resume filling their SPR's very soon at these low prices. It won't be long before inventories dry up.