oil volatility.... best way to sell...

Here's OVX since May 2007. As you know, it's based on USO so it's not the same as OIV but it's very close.
 

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cdcaveman said:
what is expensive then? I don't have anything over a 5 year chart using ovx.. nothing else i'm going buy. .. I know this is very naive but i'm just looking to learn
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You cannot price volatility in isolation. You have to look at the underlying. You also have to look at where you are in the market. Think about this, you can buy an ATM straddle 30 days out in WTI that is equal to a single days range!!!!! That is insane. Why on God's green earth would you sell that. WTI is moving 5 pts a day. Hell it comes off 3 pts during lunch when it usually has a .30 range. I measure vol by what I'm getting in return. I just don't say, oh look, vol is up a lot. Of course it is. WTI had .75 to 1.00 ranges a few months ago and you had to pay 5 times that daily range to get an ATM straddle. Now the market is offering you 1X!
 
Maverick74 said:
You cannot price volatility in isolation. You have to look at the underlying. You also have to look at where you are in the market. Think about this, you can buy an ATM straddle 30 days out in WTI that is equal to a single days range!!!!! That is insane. Why on God's green earth would you sell that. WTI is moving 5 pts a day. Hell it comes off 3 pts during lunch when it usually has a .30 range. I measure vol by what I'm getting in return. I just don't say, oh look, vol is up a lot. Of course it is. WTI had .75 to 1.00 ranges a few months ago and you had to pay 5 times that daily range to get an ATM straddle. Now the market is offering you 1X!
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IMO ...... You can not gauge volatility with a $3.50 stock.


:)
 
felixbocharov said:
I don't trade oil it's a too unpredictable commodity. Oil's fall couldn't happen to a more deserving industry, more deserving companies, or more deserving speculators.
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...more deserving countries too?

And why would specs care if oil is up/down?
 
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