oil up or down ??

I think because he'll reign in the EPA and domestic oil production and fracking will roar. OPEC will be forced to drop prices, and everything will snowball from there.

If Clinton wins.... it will be an EPA and regulatory environmental nightmare for U.S. domestic drillers. So OPEC will be able to raise prices.

I could be wrong, but I think its a safe assumption.
 
There's great book, Market Maddness, by Blake Clayton, detailing the endless booms and busts of oil prices. As prices drops, so does production, then when all feel prices will stay low, they rise. When prices rise, production increases, and new technology to extract. Then as that revs up and production increases., prices fall and process repeats. Incredibly volatile and cyclical. Remember "Peak Oil" not so long ago?
 

http://fortune.com/2016/07/25/hedge-funds-oil-price-2/

Hedge funds increased their short positions in NYMEX WTI in five of the last seven weeks, according to data published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Short positions have almost tripled from 53 million barrels at the end of May to 141 million barrels on July 19 as prices have eased down from $50 to $45 per barrel.

Hedge funds have become more confident that the former rally is over as oil prices have failed to recover their previous peak of more than $50 per barrel.

And the emerging downtrend in oil prices has emboldened managers to increase their bearish bets on short-term oil prices.

The increase in hedge fund short positions in the week to July 19, equivalent to nearly 28 million barrels, was the largest one-week increase since July 2015.

Since the start of 2015, there has been a strong correlation between hedge fund short positions and WTI prices.

There have been three cycles of position building and liquidation in which hedge funds have accumulated and then reduced large short positions in WTI.

Now the hedge funds appear to have embarked on a fourth.
More...
 
US Oil Exports Have Surged Since Export Ban Was Lifted
Posted by:otterwood1 hour, 25 minutes ago
US crude oil exports have surged after the oil export ban was lifted by Congress in December. The chart below shows how quick US oil exports have jumped to record levels. Given the oil oversupply in the US it's not surprising companies have sold excess production outside the US.

The export ban was originally put in place by Congress in 1975 after the OPEC embargo caused gasoline prices to skyrocket in the US. As the shale revolution helped create a massive oil glut around the world the export ban didn’t reflect the realities of today’s oil market.

oil_exports.png



by Otterwood Capital Management
 
First post! IMO, Crude might be close to a bottom. The weekly inventory reports from the last few weeks have been slight drawdowns for the most part. Nothing like back in 2014 when we saw the massive drop around Thanksgiving.

Although it's very possible we continue the slide lower, my guess is that we will not make any new 52 week lows, and that a selloff will be somewhat short lived.
 
DirectMarketAccess said:
First post! IMO, Crude might be close to a bottom. The weekly inventory reports from the last few weeks have been slight drawdowns for the most part. Nothing like back in 2014 when we saw the massive drop around Thanksgiving.

Although it's very possible we continue the slide lower, my guess is that we will not make any new 52 week lows, and that a selloff will be somewhat short lived.
More...
 
Agree. Anyhow by Jan 2018 a lot more upside than downside vs. today, am placing "bet" on this via LEAP option. May lose of course but it is an asymmetrical bet, much more upside for the downside risk.
 
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