Oil Trading

[Hookway]

According to my model, I ought to be in here, long at 91.30, or actually the EOD price at the end of the US session, 90.66. But I'm not in, I"m too rattled with the preceeding stop.

 

[Overnight]

According to my model, I ought to be in here, long at 91.30, or actually the EOD price at the end of the US session, 90.66. But I'm not in, I"m too rattled with the preceeding stop.

View attachment 291062

On such a demand-driven instrument, you need to take a longer-view picture.

Does that look like a healthy long-entry point to you? No TA can work on an instrument impacted so much by the whims of humans, like war, output increases/decreases and the like.

 

[Hookway]

On such a demand-driven instrument, you need to take a longer-view picture.

View attachment 291068

Does that look like a healthy long-entry point to you? No TA can work on an instrument impacted so much by the whims of humans, like war, output increases/decreases and the like.

I agree they're dangerous trades; its not a long-term entry point, only a day.
I think the influences largely cancel one another making it random but for the fact that IV mean reverts and correlations have to exist thru all the whims.