OIL to $80

well, the reversing put/call ratio for XLE strongly suggests a pullback in the near-term; the weekly chart shows a channel extreme - so for stocks I'd just wait

for futures, the slightest news of diplomatic resolution will pop this geopolitical bubble quick into a short-term pullback;

no doubt it's on the rise just not a high expectancy entry point right now

of course the phrase "new high" sends all the crack junkies into a
mad primordial mating dance after which they all screw themselves...God Bless America
 
intraday thus far, we touched the high of yesterday after some serious profit taking. Rallied 60 cents off the lows to 77.50

80 here we come.
 
I dumped all my oil today on the open.

After reading through these boards last night, I realized the long oil trade is just way too crowded- time to bail.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

I dumped all my oil today on the open.

After reading through these boards last night, I realized the long oil trade is just way too crowded- time to bail.
More...

IMHO, certain canroys/MLP's have traded at flat for the last month or so during the runup in oil and the downturn in nat gas.

I had been long earlier in the year, sold out with oil at 70, booked my profit, and thought I would get back in at 55-60ish. No dice.

It wasn't making sense to me for these instruments with ridiculous yields -10-12%, so I jumped back in. Remember that we haven't even STARTED hurricane season yet. And the whole mideast situation is just silly.

Paid the offer on 3 - there was size on it and it didn't budge. Maybe I'm on the wrong side - but at worst between my profits and the high div, I get out at flat or a small loss. OTOH, if things go silly, I'm in.

I'm starting to believe the GS superspike theory. And really wondering who, if anyone, is steering the boat here.

This is a pure momentum trade.
 
so we ended at the lows of 77. I am long over the weekend, banking on some news that Iran will enter the fray in the situatoin in the mid east. Low downside, good upside IMO. Buying the dips.......
 
IMO oil will go up until this news gets over-discounted in the market. Then it will have a reversal day when it initially spikes on good news, then turns down and closes at the lows. That will be where to exit longs and go short. IMO it will not hit $100 before this happens.

It's a bit like gold in the runup to the Iraq war.

Oil is a crowded trade but so was the nasdaq at 4000, it still had 1000 points to go. Gold was a crowded trade at $650, it then went up to $730.
 
Got out after it dropped from 77. I have been long since it found support at 73.50, but it obviously puked on Friday (7/28). I am obviously am still a bull on this trade. My perma-bullishness has blinded me from short term gyrations. Give it time.

-I have to return some videotapes.
 
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