Oil supply what's the real situation?

[Samson77]

There are many bright people in this forum can someone please answer the simple question of how much Oil is left in the world and how long it will last us for?

Everywhere I turn I get a different answer does anyone know the TRUTH surely this can't be that hard to figure out given todays technology.

 

[dougcs]

IMO, when you add up the non conventional and very expensive sources of oil, such as oil sands, shale, coal conversion, GTL, heavy oils as well as a few others I can't remember off the top of my head, you get a few more centuries. Unless of course the Russian/Ukranian abiogenic creation theory proves out then it there is much more.

For example, Canadian oil sands in Alberta hold about 2 Trillion barrels compared to the best guess of Saudi's reserves of 200 billion barrels. Venezuela's Orinoco River heavy oil belt is estimated at over a Trillion barrels.

Oil will no doubt get more expensive as the easy to find and easy to refine and easy to produce light, sweet crude reserves decline.

The next few years before the new supplies from the current rush to find and produce oil comes to fruition will be dicey. And, there needs IMO more importantly new refining capacity to handle the lower grade crude these unconventional sources produce.

DS

 

[Businessman]

200 billion barrels.

At $100 a barrel, Saudi oil would be worth $20 Trillion!

The US national debt is only 7 trillion, and
the Wilshire total market index is only worth 12 trillion.

The Saudis could pay off the debt and buy all of corporate
america and still have change left over.

 

[Samson77]

Quote from Businessman:

200 billion barrels.

At $100 a barrel, Saudi oil would be worth $20 Trillion!

The US national debt is only 7 trillion, and
the Wilshire total market index is only worth 12 trillion.

The Saudis could pay off the debt and buy all of corporate
america and still have change left over.

If these numbers are correct and Canada has 200 Trillion in the sands alone well buy me a Bentley

Seriously though I just want to know if there are real HARD facts or is this the same kind of game they play with the worlds Diamond supply?

Surely someone MUST know!

Can someone point me to some good sites and links?

 

[Sparohok]

I hate to sound like that asshole who was promoting peak oil here a few months ago. But he did have a point. Reserves aren't really the most important question as far as oil price is concerned. The question is how fast we can get what we have out of the ground. Shale oil for example, even if we made massive infrastructure investments we wouldn't start getting significant quantities of oil for a decade. Even when everything is cranking along, mining is a lot slower than pumping. The days when you could stick a straw in the sand and oil would come out are over, and the reserves we have left are going to be harder and harder to get out of the ground quickly enough to meet demand.

Martin

 

[QQQShort]

A like for the Alberta oil sands:

http://www.oilsandsdiscovery.com/oil_sands_story/resource.html

 

[Samson77]

Quote from Sparohok:

I hate to sound like that asshole who was promoting peak oil here a few months ago. But he did have a point. Reserves aren't really the most important question as far as oil price is concerned. The question is how fast we can get what we have out of the ground. Shale oil for example, even if we made massive infrastructure investments we wouldn't start getting significant quantities of oil for a decade. Even when everything is cranking along, mining is a lot slower than pumping. The days when you could stick a straw in the sand and oil would come out are over, and the reserves we have left are going to be harder and harder to get out of the ground quickly enough to meet demand.

Martin

Martin

If I'm not mistaken are they not already refining the oil from the Canadian sands and if so why not just ramp that up?

 

[Sparohok]

Quote from Samson77:

Seriously though I just want to know if there are real HARD facts or is this the same kind of game they play with the worlds Diamond supply?

I think there are "only" a hundred billion barrels or so of proven & provable reserves. The remainder of the 1 trillion barrels are too deep to be surface mined economically, and "in situ" technologies are still pretty experimental and low yielding. I'm sure you can find better numbers if you just Google it, I'm too lazy.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the bitumen in the tar sands is extremely high in carbon, much like coal. If we start taking global warming seriously, oil sands will have to address their carbon output. Theoretically they can use nuclear power to generate hydrogen and upgrade the oil without carbon emissions, but that's not a short term solution.

Martin

 

[Sparohok]

Quote from Samson77:

If I'm not mistaken are they not already refining the oil from the Canadian sands and if so why not just ramp that up?

Yes they are. I'm a very happy investor in SU and COS_U.TO, so I know quite a bit about that.

Oil sands have the same problem as oil shale, mining is slow and the upgrading process is incredibly complex, capital intensive, and prone to failures. Both Syncrude and Suncor have large expansion projects that have had massive cost overruns and delays in the past. Both had production problems late last year that has shut in a lot of their 2005 production.

Despite the enormous reserves and 25 years of serious investment, oil sands production is only 20% of Canada's crude oil. It is an important source but it will never be able to replace conventional crude in the amounts we use it today.

Martin

 

[TGregg]

Quote from Sparohok:

I think there are "only" a hundred billion barrels or so of proven & provable reserves.

We're burning what? 84 million barrels a day? 100B is just over 3 years, assuming no growth in demand. I'm no expert, but if in 3 years we wouldn't have any oil left that we knew about, it'd be a hell of a lot more than $60 a barrel. Geez, it's be $60 a <b>gallon</b>!

84 million barrels a day. Wow. If I only had a penny. . .