Oil Rig Count and Predicting a Rebound
- Thread starter Blitzinger
- Start date
That's a good guess. I would say the avg price low will be in the mid 20's but the issue is when we get that low volatility will be very high and I think overnight we could wick into the teens as a final FU to the bottom pickers. The real pain here for the producers is not price but time. I think time wise this pain will go another 12 months.
Will Russia just start a war to simulate the oil price to save their oil based econ?
They've already done that and it hasn't seemed to help. There is no longer a "flight to quality" aspect to oil any more. This is all about a huge long-term supply dynamic imbalance.
Russia is not the marginal producer so therefore by definition they can't set the market clearing price. Just fyi....
I mean a much larger scale kind like declaring war against USA.
Nothing like mutually assured destruction to really kick your economy back into gear.
Plunge? Not sure I would call that a plunge but G/H is priced in line with G/Z strip if not a few ticks steep. And I'm not sure what you mean by as precarious as 2008. Oil was in steep backwardation in 2008.
Late 2008/early 2009 to clarify, I'm referring to the analogous cycle bust back then when the WTI curve flipped into steep contango. The front routinely blew out to $2-5 under the deferred month into expiration, while we're seeing relatively stable behavior this time around.