Oil Rig Count and Predicting a Rebound

GloriaBrown said:
There are always many "valid fundamental points" for fundamental analysis when thing goes one direction but then all these "valid fundamental points" are wrong when things go another direction, that's why using fundamental analysis to trade is a horrible idea and good thing for investment banks to conflict people since they know fact A B C are what commonly believe and tell you a target they they want you to believe but then they actually know the trend will be end or there is a true reason fact D that drives that trend that would not just stop at the target that they told you. Anyway they tell you something to conflict you or not accurate enough for some kind of advantage for themselves.
More...
Basically agree. It seems there is a certain class of people who do not like to think for themselves, or can't. The market strategists at the houses fulfill that need well. It also gives people the illusion of control-- that someone is on top of the situation, monitoring for signs of change. The reality is that the prediction business doesn't seem to be more accurate than flipping a coin, the exceptions proving the rule. It seems that it's more public relations than anything. The more stuff you say, the more attention you get. If you don't do it, your competition will, and they will get the trade flow. Mostly if your opinion turns out wrong, people forget. And that's what all of it is--opinion. If you think the house sauce is better, that they are saving it for themselves, I give you Lehman Brothers.
 
Cswim63 said:
Basically agree. It seems there is a certain class of people who do not like to think for themselves, or can't. The market strategists at the houses fulfill that need well. It also gives people the illusion of control-- that someone is on top of the situation, monitoring for signs of change. The reality is that the prediction business doesn't seem to be more accurate than flipping a coin, the exceptions proving the rule. It seems that it's more public relations than anything. The more stuff you say, the more attention you get. If you don't do it, your competition will, and they will get the trade flow. Mostly if your opinion turns out wrong, people forget. And that's what all of it is--opinion. If you think the house sauce is better, that they are saving it for themselves, I give you Lehman Brothers.
More...

The reality is that the prediction business in "public media includes CNBC, Ibanks marketing" doesn't seem to be more accurate than flipping a coin, or should be worse than flipping a coin.
 
Blitzinger said:
Currently, the total US Oil Rig count for the US is at 757, a mere 8 rigs higher than 2002's count of 749. With the increasing amount of small oil companies approaching default, can we expect a rebound in oil prices?

I currently hold some ETFs that are long oil as well as some major Oil companies (exxon, bp, etc). I purchased my securities in early October and plan to hold for at least a year. What's everyones thoughts on this and what price expectation do you have for oils price a year from now? I'm betting/hoping for mid 60s price range.
More...

Well, oil is 20% lower since this post. I still think we are heading to the 20's.
 
Maverick74 said:
Well, oil is 20% lower since this post. I still think we are heading to the 20's.
More...
I still see guys in here trying to pick a bottom, which sort of shocks me. Yesterday about buying KMI. So I guess there's still some buyers left, despite how oversold it all is. Now we need some chest beating about what a great short oil was for them.
 
Cswim63 said:
I still see guys in here trying to pick a bottom, which sort of shocks me. Yesterday about buying KMI. So I guess there's still some buyers left, despite how oversold it all is. Now we need some chest beating about what a great short oil was for them.
More...

S and P looks much more scary than oil.
 
Sure, in the long run, all competitive markets end up getting priced at marginal cost. In the case of oil that will be the marginal cost of the lowest cost producer which is Saudi. That will be in the $10 to $15 range.
 

Attachments

  • Oil-Chart-1.png
    Oil-Chart-1.png
    34.2 KB · Views: 60
Maverick74 said:
Sure, in the long run, all competitive markets end up getting priced at marginal cost. In the case of oil that will be the marginal cost of the lowest cost producer which is Saudi. That will be in the $10 to $15 range.
More...
I would say, look for some signs of hysteria in either oil or sp for some kind of bottom. Usually bottoms and tops take time to form, so there's no rush. I've spotted my first newbie trying to find a way to buy oil puts, so there's a straw in the wind.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top