Oil Rig Count and Predicting a Rebound

Cswim63 said:
That's wonderful. Who benefits if that's true? Right now the dollar is strong and oil is down. Maybe it's just a dollar play and the rest of the fundamentals are following. I wonder if the dollar were down would this weakness in oil even be happening .
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While no doubt oil is inversely correlated to the dollar, the current 180 day CL/DX correlation is about -0.10 right now.
 
Cswim63 said:
I'm thinking the overall reason for the decline is the economy sucks worse than is apparent. So you have demand destruction weighed against lower costs. If true, I would expect lack of demand to be a stronger factor as far as earnings and the markets. So I see it as more of a short play
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That's correct. It's both a perfect storm of demand destruction in the face of endless supply. And even worse for energy companies is the coming rising rate environment. Oh God, someone better katy bar the door. It's going to get ugly.
 
Maverick74 said:
China. Anything China. Run a corr with WTI and Copper, Steel.....it's ugly man.
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Are there any publicly traded bankruptcy lawyers? I wonder if Ritchie Brothers' business goes up entering a recession--overall. Wonder if it's better or worse in Texas right now. After all, they get paid to clean up the mess
 
I guess I see the rig count data and the economic data much differently than the OP. I see much more supply than demand, and so does the market.

With such a humongous and stranded supply of crude in the U.S. and Canadian mainland, does it make sense to pick a bottom ? My guess is that commercial producers will sell into any market action above $50 just to hedge their forward production.

"Rig activity levels across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin stood at 26 per cent this week, up slightly from last week’s rate of 24 per cent, Rig Locator records show.

There were an average 195 active rigs at work out of a fleet of 762."

http://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/article/2015/11/27/rig-activity-rates-remain-stagnant/
 
bone said:
I guess I see the rig count data and the economic data much differently than the OP. I see much more supply than demand, and so does the market.

With such a humongous and stranded supply of crude in the U.S. and Canadian mainland, does it make sense to pick a bottom ? My guess is that commercial producers will sell into any market action above $50 just to hedge their forward production.

"Rig activity levels across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin stood at 26 per cent this week, up slightly from last week’s rate of 24 per cent, Rig Locator records show.

There were an average 195 active rigs at work out of a fleet of 762."

http://www.dailyoilbulletin.com/article/2015/11/27/rig-activity-rates-remain-stagnant/
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Bone, the contango is already very extreme. How would you trade a flattening ( maybe even steepening) of the forward curve in a :

1) Recessionary environment
2) Recovery environment

Thank you.
 
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