Oil Prices
- Thread starter libertad
- Start date
I have to admit that I was buying a lot of the justifications for why oil should be 3 times as expensive as it was two years ago and headed for $100.
I hadn't even considered the possibility that it could be a bubble.
Then I remembered that back in 1998/99 I also bought a lot of the 'new economy' arguments that justified buying tech stocks trading with PE's of 50+.
I hadn't even considered the possibility that it could be a bubble.
Then I remembered that back in 1998/99 I also bought a lot of the 'new economy' arguments that justified buying tech stocks trading with PE's of 50+.
welp....I admit I've been a little ambivalent of late, lacking the requisite instinct that normally accompanies my humble opinions.
I said the night of the hurricane that producers would probably want to off as much product at 70 ish as they can because it's simply not worth that much money. It's like renting a studio in NY for 2000 a month. From the landlord's perspective, it's "get it while you can." Result, sell off.
Having said that, I have decided that all this talk about what oil "should" sell for, if inflation adjusted, is really meaningless (as if that in itself describes the economics of oil supply and demand today) but nonetheless wouldn't be surprised to see the market test that price.
At which point I'd be telling Mortimer to "get in there and sell! Sell!"
I said the night of the hurricane that producers would probably want to off as much product at 70 ish as they can because it's simply not worth that much money. It's like renting a studio in NY for 2000 a month. From the landlord's perspective, it's "get it while you can." Result, sell off.
Having said that, I have decided that all this talk about what oil "should" sell for, if inflation adjusted, is really meaningless (as if that in itself describes the economics of oil supply and demand today) but nonetheless wouldn't be surprised to see the market test that price.
At which point I'd be telling Mortimer to "get in there and sell! Sell!"
the long oil play is some of the bigger hedgies main cash cow --- they will not give this up without a very big liquidity fight. oil above $55 will be here for a long time.
Energy prices will continue to rise until the American consumer is completely gassed (pun intended).
With that said, we're in Iraq for a reason friends and it has absolutely nothing to do with terrorism, WMD, evil dictators and spreading democracy.
The Dragon is no longer asleep and by acting as the "regulator" to global energy supplies a "containment" policy is in place.
With that said, we're in Iraq for a reason friends and it has absolutely nothing to do with terrorism, WMD, evil dictators and spreading democracy.
The Dragon is no longer asleep and by acting as the "regulator" to global energy supplies a "containment" policy is in place.
Have the feds made any *concrete* statements about releasing/loaning light crude from the reserves to refineries . So far all the keywords have been "weighing", "thinking", etc. Nothing concrete. Can't these people comprehend that actual *concrete* statements would do a lot to bring crude prices down. It almost seems like they want to milk the last dollar out of the consumer before doing anything. At least one refinery has made a request, anyone have info on that one.
My little model includes a sentiment factor and what I term a specualtive adjustment factor .... these are on top of a basic demand model.
All said, I dont see 100.00 oil and in fact, my model says that we are nearing a top.
Of course, "its just a model" .....
Bush: "Don't buy gas if you don't need to .."
Hehe, I have some experience from some other types of shortages ... because of strikes. That's some of the surest sign to just run out and buy what you can get.
I imagine people filling their bathtubs and swimming pools.
.. and what's about those crack-heads sniping on rescuers and helis. That's got to be some of the dumbest action I have ever seen. They just flunked on having the minimum intelligence required of a human being.
Even foreign tankers can haul oil around the US now, that should give some nice profits in the pockets of a lot of rich tanker-owners. There should probably be a lot of other good opportunities around those areas when rebuilding starts. A lot of work.
It also seems that federal relief will dig deep into taxpayers pockets for "some time' to come as well.
Hehe, I have some experience from some other types of shortages ... because of strikes. That's some of the surest sign to just run out and buy what you can get.
I imagine people filling their bathtubs and swimming pools.
.. and what's about those crack-heads sniping on rescuers and helis. That's got to be some of the dumbest action I have ever seen. They just flunked on having the minimum intelligence required of a human being.
Even foreign tankers can haul oil around the US now, that should give some nice profits in the pockets of a lot of rich tanker-owners. There should probably be a lot of other good opportunities around those areas when rebuilding starts. A lot of work.
It also seems that federal relief will dig deep into taxpayers pockets for "some time' to come as well.