Oil price action trading

Quote from niko:

Hehe, yep, just erased it. Sorry :(
More...

lol.
I was thinking ''what on earth is he talking about, support at 29'' etc etc. I thought ''I know i've got a lot to learn, but it's like we're looking at different charts!'
Turns out we were!

Tougher day on oil for me today than yesterday, unsurprisingly
 
In oil we have so far had a nice start.

I have a LH at the open with a break of SL, that originated a downswing towards S at 40. There buyers fought back and managed to make a HL, but there was no SL to break so no entry there, just the realization i was being sucked into a hinge, hence the exit.

Then came the BO of the hinge and its respective RET, where the short is marked. That was a nice short and the SL held all the way to 6,90.

Then came a new HL after the break of SL, but this one failed on stronger vol at the LSH, first reading of trouble

No more trades until now, as we are clearly in a TR between 72 and 94.
 

Attachments

Ok, I am back, took a posting sabatical.

Daily:

After the breakout from congestion we hit S at 102, sellers lost their impetus and price barely closed below the S level so it is a signal of strength. Today we are back in the TR, but still under the influence of the down trend line, so have to be on the look for either a BO or a REV.

Hourly

The precise level of S looks like 102.30 from there buyers have managed to keep prices from falling and are already around the 50% RET of yesterday range. If this turns into a TC prices could even go as far as 104, where buyers will find last week low as well.

5 min

Prices formed a hinge after hitting the 50% RET area, I guess market players are comfortable at this level, buyers tried to push prices upwards but failed, now it looks like sellers are the ones trying to push for a test of S
 

Attachments

At the open, sellers had pushed below the area of S at 103.07, then a hinge just formed around this price level before sellers kept on pushing at the open.

1. At first my thinking was focussed on RET until the SL was broken at 9:06, then came the first sign of strength on what looked at the time like a REV in the making.

2. The supposed REV failed immediately after my entry, I was for some reason away from the fact that 07 was R and I took that trade, that perhaps could have been avoided. As there was no DL drawn to be broken I did not think about SAR the position. although there was a very clear LH.

3. as prices made new lows, the LOLR was confirmed as down, so I decided to give the short side a new opportunity, I took the RET and closed the trade as it broke the SL, I am trading only 1 full position so I am not testing multiple exits so far, but this could be one of those cases where a multiple exit strategy is of much help.

4. A DB formed just before the exit of 3, but I did not SAR as it is not in my rules, still need to come up with something to trade ranges, or perhaps not, only time will tell.

5. As the SL was taken I waited for a RET and took the long side of the trade, once again buyers gave up at R I closed the long at the break of DL, i am getting the idea that I should close at least one contract at the extreme of the range...

6. DL broken+ LH around R, was a short entry, but the trade stalled at the MP of the TR, although a HL had formed around 10:00 I kept the trade open out of discipline and awaited for a SL break.

7. As sellers gave up and the SL was broken I avoided the long side as i was just around the MP of the TR and expected some choppiness.

8. The same mistake as in 2 anticipating S BO, it did not happen and I got stopped out at the HL, But the HL also served as the entry for the long. THe long was held until the DL was broken, but once again, i think I have to consider closing at R and S and look for a reentry or play a multiple contract strategy.
 

Attachments

Daily

Seems that we have definitely found S at the bottom of the TR around 70, and after a day of choppiness perhaps buyers take a shot and push higher today.

Hourly

Yesterday turned out to be a hinge, premarket today sellers tried to BO to the downside but were rejected at PDL, now buyers are pushing towards R at 11. If they can take it, they will find rejection at PDH around 30, then if victorious they will possibly try to make it to 104-104.10 area towards PW 50% level. (Being careful with the use of MP)

5 min

The failure in the hourly was a HL in the 5 min and the beginning of a trend that still holds just minutes before the open, at the time of the post looks like buyers are giving up and a RET is forming, If DL holds the open could be interesting on the long side.
 

Attachments

1. At the open the long seemed like the LOLR, so I took the first RET, this RET turned out to be a REV. I am starting to see a pattern in PA within channels that I had not seen before. Will include that into the things to watch.

2. The REV finally lead to the break of the TC DL, took the short at the first RET, as price found S at the same place it had found it at 8:40 i became suspicious of it, I guess the fact that the first trade was a loser put me in more stress that I needed. I ended up closing the trade at the first sign of strength, while the H at 9:20 was not taken out. This is a mistake, that i ended up paying later in the session.

3. The downtrend continued and then came the next RET, but it failed really fast I exited as soon as I had, the thing is that this trade was not supposed to happen, but the close at 2 left me without nothing to manage
:mad: .

4. After the break of the channel i waited for the first RET, the entry was triggered but it met increasing volume at the 50% level of the downswing from, then the DL was broken and finally my exit was triggered.

5. Sellers made a new attempt for a push towards 2.70, but failed just ticks above it, then after a break of SL the first RET market the entry on the long side. Here again an early exit kept me out of the best move of the day, by this time I was just worn from the chop action and perhaps that made me take profits too early while I could let price breathe some more, something to thing about.

6. The next RET opportunity turned into a hinge pretty fast and I got stopped out, here again if the initial trade had remained open this trade would have not been triggered.

7. This was the last trade, as the trend held a long at a RET was still the way to go, exited at the break of the DL.
 

Attachments

Daily:

We broke S at 102 and are currently within the context of a downtrend, Perhaps buyers will try to test R in a RET attempt before giving up, or not. We´ll see.

101 might be of importance so I will be careful around that level.


Hourly

After breaking Thursday hinge buyers tried to take control of the market but were held by sellers at PW50% level at 103.6 on Friday afternoon, then sellers pushed below PWL at 102.17. At the time of the post there is a struggle, as buyers managed to hold the market at 101.5 but then just stopped pushing. The last downswing is suspicious as it was really timid and the last upswing is way above 50% mark. Looks like chop is in the making.

5 min

Looks like we will be in the middle of a congestion, not sure if it qualifies as a hinge, but it does look like a congestion so I will be careful with this before committing any trade to this PA.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top