Oil price action trading
- Thread starter niko
- Start date
You should read the whole Dbphoenix thread here and in Traders Laboratory, is a must if you want to understand Wyckoff, you can also read wyckoff course, but that is pretty complicated the first time, after you have done your screen time homework, the book seems more clear, but in the beginning is pretty hard to rationalize.
Daily
We are on a hinge and volatility is compressing even more, after a failed attempt above R at 8,60 buyers gave up. LOLR (Chop)
Hourly
SL was broken around 8:00 PM yesterday, after buyers stalled at the top of the TC and the SL from sept 6th, this means we are back inside the context of the longer term downtrend, but we have to remember we are on a hinge on the daily as well, so things might not be as smooth as we would like during the day. We found S at PDL that coincides with PWPM. So far we seem to be in the 1st serious RET towards the SL, could be an opp to short, but we are also just above S at 42, so extra attention is required here. LOLR . Down
5 min
We found S at 5:00 at PDL, then came a hinge that finally failed and that was the end of the Downtrend. We are now at the 50% level and seems like buyers are stalling, nevertheless DL still holds so the uptrend remains, Perhaps buyers will try to test PDMP, perhaps not, this could be an opp to join the 60 min shorts if the DL fails and a REV opp comes around the open.
We are on a hinge and volatility is compressing even more, after a failed attempt above R at 8,60 buyers gave up. LOLR (Chop)
Hourly
SL was broken around 8:00 PM yesterday, after buyers stalled at the top of the TC and the SL from sept 6th, this means we are back inside the context of the longer term downtrend, but we have to remember we are on a hinge on the daily as well, so things might not be as smooth as we would like during the day. We found S at PDL that coincides with PWPM. So far we seem to be in the 1st serious RET towards the SL, could be an opp to short, but we are also just above S at 42, so extra attention is required here. LOLR . Down
5 min
We found S at 5:00 at PDL, then came a hinge that finally failed and that was the end of the Downtrend. We are now at the 50% level and seems like buyers are stalling, nevertheless DL still holds so the uptrend remains, Perhaps buyers will try to test PDMP, perhaps not, this could be an opp to join the 60 min shorts if the DL fails and a REV opp comes around the open.
1. Before the open buyers had tried unsuccessfully to break above R at 8.03. Did not take any trades before the open, out of fear I guess, and the fact that I was on a TR whose downside BO just failed did not help much either.
2. At the open sellers broke out of the TR and I decided to join in the BO, I have to reexamine this kinds of trades in order to see if I am not taking unnecessary risks here.3. The downtrend stopped at 7.53, there was not prelim S there but I decided to close the trade at the break of SL, I think this was my mistake, as the absence of Prelim S was a good enough reason not to reenter,
3. but anyway I reentered and the trade failed, and as it failed I SAR on the failure. For some reason I started feeling uneasy about this trade, and closed it at the cross of the SL. My rational here was that if the trade was bad, I would have saved myself some money, if it was good,i could reenter later.
4.As the SL was broken I started looking for a REV, I took the first indication of buyers pushing to the upside, but it failed. I will have to deal with these kind of environments, where the Trend is still down as all LSHs are still in place, even if my SLs are being pierced. Guess a 2 contract strategy will be of help.
5. I missed the entry, so i decided to take the short on the next swing, I managed to take it and this was a good trade, but then we hit S at 7.22 S was expected at 7.30 so I decided to close the trade as soon as I got a HL.
6. Here I think I exaggerated the tightness of the DL and open the new short very soon. The proper entry was minutes later, i also took it , but the loss was banked....
7. Price entered a TR and I decided to wait until the BO came, that happened at 10:40 where I took the short.
8. AS price met S at 30 again I managed to close my short, but did not open the long as my SL was still intact, but the failure at S looked interesting at the time, I will pay more attention to this in the future.
9. As I missed the entry took the RET, but for some stupid reason got out too soon.
10. Once again a RET, but this time i was too close to R from the open and the trade was rapidly declared a failure.
A bad day, lots of things to reconsider...
2. At the open sellers broke out of the TR and I decided to join in the BO, I have to reexamine this kinds of trades in order to see if I am not taking unnecessary risks here.3. The downtrend stopped at 7.53, there was not prelim S there but I decided to close the trade at the break of SL, I think this was my mistake, as the absence of Prelim S was a good enough reason not to reenter,
3. but anyway I reentered and the trade failed, and as it failed I SAR on the failure. For some reason I started feeling uneasy about this trade, and closed it at the cross of the SL. My rational here was that if the trade was bad, I would have saved myself some money, if it was good,i could reenter later.
4.As the SL was broken I started looking for a REV, I took the first indication of buyers pushing to the upside, but it failed. I will have to deal with these kind of environments, where the Trend is still down as all LSHs are still in place, even if my SLs are being pierced. Guess a 2 contract strategy will be of help.
5. I missed the entry, so i decided to take the short on the next swing, I managed to take it and this was a good trade, but then we hit S at 7.22 S was expected at 7.30 so I decided to close the trade as soon as I got a HL.
6. Here I think I exaggerated the tightness of the DL and open the new short very soon. The proper entry was minutes later, i also took it , but the loss was banked....
7. Price entered a TR and I decided to wait until the BO came, that happened at 10:40 where I took the short.
8. AS price met S at 30 again I managed to close my short, but did not open the long as my SL was still intact, but the failure at S looked interesting at the time, I will pay more attention to this in the future.
9. As I missed the entry took the RET, but for some stupid reason got out too soon.
10. Once again a RET, but this time i was too close to R from the open and the trade was rapidly declared a failure.
A bad day, lots of things to reconsider...
With hindsight is always easy to spot the trades..... Regarding what you are saying, if you are getting stopped out too much is because your entries are wrong or your initial stop is not based on S and R.
If you are trading an interval smaller than 1 min, it could also because you can be overtrading.
If you are trading an interval smaller than 1 min, it could also because you can be overtrading.
Daily:
Looks like sellers are attempting a BO to the downside
Hourly
We are in a downtrend finding S at PWL around 6.30, we are way too close and perhaps sellers can manage to take control at the open and break below S. If there is strong rejection then it could be an opp ride a REV. LOLR: Down
5 min,
After hitting S around 6.50 sellers made a new attempts with much less energy that was stopped with a burst of volume at 6.40 around 8:00. From that level sellers have managed to recover control of the market resisting buyers advance at 6.80. LOLR Down, with risk of congestion if 40 holds.
Looks like sellers are attempting a BO to the downside
Hourly
We are in a downtrend finding S at PWL around 6.30, we are way too close and perhaps sellers can manage to take control at the open and break below S. If there is strong rejection then it could be an opp ride a REV. LOLR: Down
5 min,
After hitting S around 6.50 sellers made a new attempts with much less energy that was stopped with a burst of volume at 6.40 around 8:00. From that level sellers have managed to recover control of the market resisting buyers advance at 6.80. LOLR Down, with risk of congestion if 40 holds.
1. At the open the bias was confirmed as prices broke below PM low at 6.40, As Sellers retreated my logic was RET, so I waited for an opp to short, that came at 9:05, but then sellers rapidly retreated again and vol increased as prices moved away from the bar, I guess it was a signal to close the trade immediately, but I decided to wait for a test of LSH before changing my mind.
2. LSH did not hold, being so close from the open, and after a failure to go lower in the part of the sellers I decided to SAR, it was somewhat stressful as price rapidly went under, but then sellers found S at a higher level and buyers started pushing without much opposition above my initial R level.
3. As prices reached the level of the premarket hinge from late 8 AM the first DL was broken after a DT, I decided to go short, but keeping an open mind in the posibility of a RET being the alternative, as the RET was confirmed I was stopped in once again.
4. As prices approached PDL I decided to close my trade near R and await for a possible RET for reentry. This worked just fine, but then I made my first mistake because of an idea of expected REV that was taking over my mind. Finally prices kept going up, but I was not paying as much attention, guess I have to work on my focus as well.
5. AS this RET was forming I felt afraid of taking this one as prices had been making RETs from the open and again I was waiting for a REV, something to work on...
6 This was the strongest downwave in the whole morning, so I thougth
this was the time for the change in the trend.
7. As buyers started pushing prices up my rationale what that this was the REV I was waiting for (first mistake), i failed to see that the SL had been already broken by the time of my entry, I managed to see that a minute afte rmy entry and I decided to SAR this one as well, the fact was that this was the begining of a congestion so I got burned twice.
8. I have to admit that I know I am not ready to trade congestions BOs as time after time I get burned with these, but as I think I am getting better at it I will keep on following them for journaling matters. This was interpreted as a doenside BO of a hinge. BUt as soon as I got in FT went away, I held the trade open as the LSH was being held intact,
9. When the SL was broken and it seemed like a HL was being formed I took the long, by this time the hinge had transformed into a Rectangle and I was still in the chop, that should have been a reason to stay out, another thing to consider for future reference.
10. As sellers exited the TR and started pushing lower I decided to short the BO, but closed it at the first sign of lack of FT.
11. But then buyers gave up, so I decided to take a new bet on the downside at the first sign of RET, as buyers failed to break in the TR.
12. This last short did not payout either, and sellers were rejected at S at 6.80 on increasing vol. At the time I was thinking about exiting Rigth away but I decided to wait for a break of SL, when it came I not only closed the trade but took a long one as well. A LH was formed, but LSL held, so i kept the trade open, only after prices failed to raise above LSH i decided to close the day and call it a day. I was also thinking about REV this play but i missed my entry so i decided to stay out.
Focus is still a big issue as well as my ability to detect unfavorable conditions and stay out, have to keep on working on the ability to spot S/R and act accordingly. Not quite sure about what S/R mean in oil, but still in the journey to find out.
2. LSH did not hold, being so close from the open, and after a failure to go lower in the part of the sellers I decided to SAR, it was somewhat stressful as price rapidly went under, but then sellers found S at a higher level and buyers started pushing without much opposition above my initial R level.
3. As prices reached the level of the premarket hinge from late 8 AM the first DL was broken after a DT, I decided to go short, but keeping an open mind in the posibility of a RET being the alternative, as the RET was confirmed I was stopped in once again.
4. As prices approached PDL I decided to close my trade near R and await for a possible RET for reentry. This worked just fine, but then I made my first mistake because of an idea of expected REV that was taking over my mind. Finally prices kept going up, but I was not paying as much attention, guess I have to work on my focus as well.
5. AS this RET was forming I felt afraid of taking this one as prices had been making RETs from the open and again I was waiting for a REV, something to work on...
6 This was the strongest downwave in the whole morning, so I thougth
this was the time for the change in the trend.
7. As buyers started pushing prices up my rationale what that this was the REV I was waiting for (first mistake), i failed to see that the SL had been already broken by the time of my entry, I managed to see that a minute afte rmy entry and I decided to SAR this one as well, the fact was that this was the begining of a congestion so I got burned twice.
8. I have to admit that I know I am not ready to trade congestions BOs as time after time I get burned with these, but as I think I am getting better at it I will keep on following them for journaling matters. This was interpreted as a doenside BO of a hinge. BUt as soon as I got in FT went away, I held the trade open as the LSH was being held intact,
9. When the SL was broken and it seemed like a HL was being formed I took the long, by this time the hinge had transformed into a Rectangle and I was still in the chop, that should have been a reason to stay out, another thing to consider for future reference.
10. As sellers exited the TR and started pushing lower I decided to short the BO, but closed it at the first sign of lack of FT.
11. But then buyers gave up, so I decided to take a new bet on the downside at the first sign of RET, as buyers failed to break in the TR.
12. This last short did not payout either, and sellers were rejected at S at 6.80 on increasing vol. At the time I was thinking about exiting Rigth away but I decided to wait for a break of SL, when it came I not only closed the trade but took a long one as well. A LH was formed, but LSL held, so i kept the trade open, only after prices failed to raise above LSH i decided to close the day and call it a day. I was also thinking about REV this play but i missed my entry so i decided to stay out.
Focus is still a big issue as well as my ability to detect unfavorable conditions and stay out, have to keep on working on the ability to spot S/R and act accordingly. Not quite sure about what S/R mean in oil, but still in the journey to find out.