Oil Party is over!!

Quote from Trend Fader:

Saudis pumping more oil, strong dollar, eliminate china/india subsidies... these factors will pressure oil in the next few months. Also US consumption on its way down a bit too.

why would china eliminate subsidies? they have inflation of around 8% and keeping gas at around $2.50 a gallon keeps inflation from going to double digits. dont forget they have a trillion in reserves so can afford them. if they ever eliminated subsidies, it would probally be after the olympics. india could not afford it anymore and in china all the oil compinies are owned by the government
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

it might get exaggerated because a lot of stop losses might get hit. Everyone is long OIL>

By definition, there are an equal number of shorts, in the futures market anyway.
 
Quote from DDuffeeInc:

You are correct in some ways. Last year was quiet. Who knows what this year will bring. If a hurricane hits Florida only will it shut down rigs?

Although I'm bullish on oil there will be no hurricane shutdowns or anything like that
 
Quote from patoo:

My family has been in oil since the 1910's.


My brother works at fixing up old out of date refinery's. Trying to keep them going. The are always having outages and running below capacity. Not enough new ones being built.

Seems simple to me.

Too little supply for too much demand.


Actually, the opposite is true.

"too much demand" would make refiners run at 100% capacity. They're operating at 88.6%

Decrease in utilization rates occurred across all PADDs, so the decrease can be attributed primarily to a drop in demand as opposed to shut downs for maintenance. (PADD stands for Petroleum Administration Defense District).

"too little supply for too much demand"- Wrong again. the world has plenty of oil. In it's annual report, Exxon reports 40 years of proved reserves -- a situation that certainly would not light a fire under the company to go out and confirm more of the reserves they have already identified, but not fully quantified at market prices (proved).
 
Quote from walter4:

Actually, the opposite is true.

"too much demand" would make refiners run at 100% capacity. They're operating at 88.6%

Decrease in utilization rates occurred across all PADDs, so the decrease can be attributed primarily to a drop in demand as opposed to shut downs for maintenance. (PADD stands for Petroleum Administration Defense District).

"too little supply for too much demand"- Wrong again. the world has plenty of oil. In it's annual report, Exxon reports 40 years of proved reserves -- a situation that certainly would not light a fire under the company to go out and confirm more of the reserves they have already identified, but not fully quantified at market prices (proved).

Low refinery utilization can be attributed to outages, required maintenance and, most importantly, declining crack spread. Why run an old refinery at a rate that requires OT for maintenance when you aren't getting paid for it?

The last inventory report showed a rise in gasoline demand, not a decline, as I recall. No doubt current prices will put a dent in gas demand over time, just not yet.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

Low refinery utilization can be attributed to outages, required maintenance and, most importantly, declining crack spread. Why run an old refinery at a rate that requires OT for maintenance when you aren't getting paid for it?

The last inventory report showed a rise in gasoline demand, not a decline, as I recall. No doubt current prices will put a dent in gas demand over time, just not yet.

I was almost positive that we keep getting reports of demand destruction in the gasoline sector.
 
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