Oil over $93 and gold right at $800

[scarylarry]

Quote from alex.samant:

US people don't know and won't know the cause. In my humble European opinion, the media has intoxicated them so much that they will wake up veeery very late.

Look,
Europe's problem is not only that the dollar is falling, but that the White House, whatever it says, wants it to fall – to protect US competitiveness and ease America's massive external deficit.



But that dollar decline is very uneven – with the greenback falling disproportionately against free-floating currencies like the euro, while remaining static against the so-called "dollar bloc", including China, the big oil exporters and other emerging markets with dollar currency pegs.

That's why European exporters are suffering unduly from the dollar's plunge.

No wonder EU finance ministers were spitting bullets at the International Monetary Fund meeting last week, when they failed in their bid to register an official protest about America's "benign neglect" dollar policy.


So look for gold and oil to go higher higher higher for now and expect the rate to be 4.50% after Wednesday.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from makloda:

Excuse me for being an ignorant European, but didn't the US - at some point - under Clinton have a balanced budget and a rock solid US Dollar?

Not sure what Bush and his minions did here exactly but to me it looks like they pumped a solid $1.5 trillion into the search for "weapons of mass destruction" and the "war against terror" and other nonsense so Americans can sleep better at night and now they wake up broke and claim they have no idea how it got so far. Somebody voted these clowns into office so voters better be ready to pay the bill.

In a Democracy, the people get the government they deserve.

- Alexis de Tocqueville

 

[ron2368]

only solution is to lower rates a full point on wed.:eek:

 

[alex.samant]

one other point would be that the US Dollar is too cheap now so that the stock market wouldn't crash and cause even more trouble....

 

[S2007S]

Why is everyone anticipating a 50BP cut on Wednesday...

No rate cut the market falls

.25 rate cut is ALREADY priced into this market,

A 50bp is just because the bulls on wallstreet have no other catalyst at this moment to keep the momentum going for this already tired bull market.

A 50 BP cut will cause major bubbles in other asset classes, right now may be all fine for stocks to move higer on this anticipated 50 BP cut, but in the long term it will be a negative. The best bet now is to cut a maximum .25 basis point and leave it alone till early 2008.

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from scriabinop23:

it looks like they've also sold out grammar and spelling lessons too.

LOL!

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from scarylarry:

Look,
Europe's problem is not only that the dollar is falling, but that the White House, whatever it says, wants it to fall – to protect US competitiveness and ease America's massive external deficit.



But that dollar decline is very uneven – with the greenback falling disproportionately against free-floating currencies like the euro, while remaining static against the so-called "dollar bloc", including China, the big oil exporters and other emerging markets with dollar currency pegs.

That's why European exporters are suffering unduly from the dollar's plunge.

No wonder EU finance ministers were spitting bullets at the International Monetary Fund meeting last week, when they failed in their bid to register an official protest about America's "benign neglect" dollar policy.

But then you've got folks like Junker out there screaming about how a strong Euro is what they (he) want(s). So what's that tell you about your analysis?

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from S2007S:

Why is everyone anticipating a 50BP cut on Wednesday...

No rate cut the market falls

.25 rate cut is ALREADY priced into this market,

A 50bp is just because the bulls on wallstreet have no other catalyst at this moment to keep the momentum going for this already tired bull market.

A 50 BP cut will cause major bubbles in other asset classes, right now may be all fine for stocks to move higer on this anticipated 50 BP cut, but in the long term it will be a negative. The best bet now is to cut a maximum .25 basis point and leave it alone till early 2008.

If the Fed cuts 0.25% the market will still rally, even if 0.25 its "already priced in".

 

[Mvic]

Fed does nothing/raises:Market will rally as it means Credit crunch is tamed.
Fed cuts .25:Market will rally on potential for more cuts and if only a .25 cut means credit crunch is abating.
Fed cuts:.50 market will rally but then may retrace when people start wondering why another .50 bp cut was necessary. This last is the most bearish move the Fed could make looking beyond the post announcement hour/day.

My play is long with rock solid defined risk (don't do a marketsurfer and get caught in a move the wrong way for 200 points!)

 

[AK100]

Quote from alex.samant:

US people don't know and won't know the cause. In my humble European opinion, the media has intoxicated them so much that they will wake up veeery very late.

Bring out the Flag

Let's here y'all -

'U.S.A - U.S.A - U.S.A - U.S.A - U.S.A'

There, feeling better already aren't we

See, that's all it takes to pacify the majority.