Oil longs

"Took a postion in TBT will watch the action. I do know the oil longs are in pain but.... I just cant see it. "

Bonds have hit an historical high. With another trillion dollar bailout package being proposed by Obama to be financed with more bonds, I don't see anywhere for bonds to go but down. I bought TBT a week ago and am hoping for more gains in the weeks ahead.

Oil, however, is not at an historical low and could certainly continue to go down. But the seasonal tendency is for oil to start going up toward the middle of February, so if the COT report indicates that commercials have started buying and the technicals indicate an uptrend , I plan to buy USO. I have some friends trying to bottom pick USO now--I sure hope they don't get burned.
 
Quote from ehmoran:

Again:

Oil will always be the life blood of the WORLD.

Don't believe you can make plastic from the SUN, WIND, TIDE, and GEOTHERMAL. Although Gore, Soros, and others would like you to believe.

As a professional scientist for 10 years, discoveries point to oil as regenerative. Meaning that environmental and chemistry conditions keep the stuff coming, in other words, not a finite source if utilized properly with no GLUT.

Also, it looks like Oil has become the currency base. I believe oil will stabilize at $75 and the support is $40. Oil at less than $60 only shows the producers that they can't have financial dominion over the WORLD. The Global Financiers still, and always will, RULE.
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ehmoron: as a professional critic of pseudo-scientists for more than 10 years, I can tell you that oil may be regenerative, but at nowhere near the rate we as humans pull it out of the earth. What's your field, intelligent design?
 
You know, you need take your hatefull attitude somewhere that would do some good, like IRAN.

I'm well published in Public and Private Environmental Science issues, so pseudo-scientists doesn't quite fit.

But I guess people like you consider yourselves much better than everyone else where you can't have a discussion where everybody learns.

That's a very Far-Left and, most likely, Far Right Attribute .

Need to come to the middle, open your mind like a child, then you may see some GOOD in others!!!!
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Not to hijack this thread, but why do people keep saying banks aren't lending?

I'm in the market to buy a house and I'm using bank of america for the mortgage - I asked the guy about banks not lending. He said "you kidding? I'm slightly less busy than I was at the height of the subprime. Slightly."

Banks are lending just fine. If they're not lending to people not qualified, then good. That's kinda how it's supposed to be.
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100% true, I trade some physical grain from usa to dominican republic and costa rica, and I have a line of credit with 3 banks, just like usual.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Not to hijack this thread, but why do people keep saying banks aren't lending?

I'm in the market to buy a house and I'm using bank of america for the mortgage - I asked the guy about banks not lending. He said "you kidding? I'm slightly less busy than I was at the height of the subprime. Slightly."

Banks are lending just fine. If they're not lending to people not qualified, then good. That's kinda how it's supposed to be.
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Banks are loaning to qualified applicants. Lending standards are way more strict, 20%+ down, FICO 700+, gainfully employed etc. No more liar loans with 0 down. Sure, a 30-year mortgage is priced to sell, if you get approved.

Its the Joe-Six Packs that largely drive this consumer-based economy. If they can't get credit, and the FICO 800 superstars can, not much is gonna change on the ground.

As far as commercial loans - their need is largely consumer driven. Consumer pulls the nations productive output, so business credit needs depend on the overall health of the average consumer.
 
I'm going to try something different, for the Feb contract i'm short expecting a fall to somewhere between 35-36 to close.

Don't expect the March contract to follow so gone long, expecting a bounce to around 45-50.
 
Im normally not a position trader but two potential large themes are jumping out at me.

Im buying oil sub 40 with a first target of 60

Im shorting the Yen from here
No target

Im building positions and am prepared for some downside but it does take some strong conviction from me to get involved in a trade that lasts for more than 10 seconds.
 
The point is that I think the Dollar will fall from here, hence the rise in oil.

Any idea where you can find the current call/put ratio's on oil for each contract ?

To make the market I would go long against the dollar.
 
AMT i really really need to ask you how do you trade oil when thres just sideways movement all day and like just a 1 t 2dolalrs rnage for the whole day??? :eek: :eek: :confused:


With no big spikes of a few dollars in both directiosn, followed by fast pullbacks n reversals.... :( :(
 
I already hit profit targets all the way up to $48.40 from my Mar QM $39.40 entries......as price cycles back down near my original entry price, I am then willing to scale back in fractions of my portions already covered with each NEW long signal. So I cycle fractional positions back in and out as I get new signals....this is to make some profits while waiting for price to move out of the current range.
 
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