Even a die hard oil bull underestimates the strength of crude. I thought we had at least seen an intermediate term top at $135/barrel in late May but I think I'm wrong. The speed at which crude bounced off of the lows this week tells me that this thing is headed for a straight shot to new highs, possibly even $150 in the near term.
This is not speculator driven, the specs have reduced positions the last 2 weeks according to the Committment of Traders data, and the commercials were the ones buying. This week has turned out to be a bear trap for the shorts, I don't see anything stopping crude until the move just goes crazy to the upside and there is nothing but air underneath, right now there are too many buyers underneath looking to get in.
Crude moving to contango is overblown, that is not bearish, it just means that producers are no longer willing to hedge below spot prices like they were a few months ago. It also tells me that there is demand that is going out many months out, this is not a short term supply demand story, its a long term one.
This is not speculator driven, the specs have reduced positions the last 2 weeks according to the Committment of Traders data, and the commercials were the ones buying. This week has turned out to be a bear trap for the shorts, I don't see anything stopping crude until the move just goes crazy to the upside and there is nothing but air underneath, right now there are too many buyers underneath looking to get in.
Crude moving to contango is overblown, that is not bearish, it just means that producers are no longer willing to hedge below spot prices like they were a few months ago. It also tells me that there is demand that is going out many months out, this is not a short term supply demand story, its a long term one.
