Oil in a bear market?
- Thread starter rajivvyas
- Start date
Here's my perspective on this. Saudi Arabia increased output by 500k barrels per day in June. There's probably a lag of a month or two before that output comes out of the ground, gets onto ships and into the market. So, here we are 1 month later, and already we're seeing some downward pressure on the market, by August, we should see 115.
OIL Bull
Euro Up - COT report shows build up (USD down)
Gold Up - COT report shows build up (USD down)
Hurricane Season soon
Oil sell off was sparked by BUSH drill drill speech, which is just talk
Volume descending as price falls ( see USO and OIL)
Middle East issues at any time
Another Bank goes sick (Leh) , forcing hard assets a preference
FNM and FRE dilution of equity, bearish for banks.
OIL Bear
China - no cars before Olympics
Demand destruction in USA
One side trade
Selling Momentum
My bet
OIL is up from here, USD fall will be its motivator to go sideways to up. Mon or Tues the key, to break momentum.
Oil is acting like GOLD when it hit $1000, profit taking only !
Euro Up - COT report shows build up (USD down)
Gold Up - COT report shows build up (USD down)
Hurricane Season soon
Oil sell off was sparked by BUSH drill drill speech, which is just talk
Volume descending as price falls ( see USO and OIL)
Middle East issues at any time
Another Bank goes sick (Leh) , forcing hard assets a preference
FNM and FRE dilution of equity, bearish for banks.
OIL Bear
China - no cars before Olympics
Demand destruction in USA
One side trade
Selling Momentum
My bet
OIL is up from here, USD fall will be its motivator to go sideways to up. Mon or Tues the key, to break momentum.
Oil is acting like GOLD when it hit $1000, profit taking only !
not that T.A. works all the time but on a weekly chart of spot crude I am getting a fibo retracement of $110
perhaps some of this was related to the expiry of august crude
however if oil cannot rally more than $1.00 in the next 24 hours
you might say the shorts are still calling the shots
and longs are liquidating at losses or with far less profits than
a week ago
perhaps some of this was related to the expiry of august crude
however if oil cannot rally more than $1.00 in the next 24 hours
you might say the shorts are still calling the shots
and longs are liquidating at losses or with far less profits than
a week ago
This pattern is nothing for a commodity in a parabolic move. Seen it dozens of times. Look at a 35 year history of any population of commodities, and about half of em have gone fully parabolic at one time or another. Usually the first probe down doesn't last.
Based on that, I expect to see another rally which will either set a double top, more or less, or just blast through and keep going.
Imo, this sell off won't last much longer, but I don't really think we are going to the moon either, as people will simply stop driving (demand destruction will get severe).
I'd like to see a blow off top first, more than anything else. Maybe a big 'ol hurricane or Iran getting frisky in the Gulf of Hormuz.
Based on that, I expect to see another rally which will either set a double top, more or less, or just blast through and keep going.
Imo, this sell off won't last much longer, but I don't really think we are going to the moon either, as people will simply stop driving (demand destruction will get severe).
I'd like to see a blow off top first, more than anything else. Maybe a big 'ol hurricane or Iran getting frisky in the Gulf of Hormuz.
