Oil: I call short term bottom right here

Quote from smilingsynic:

They may be flooding to fend off recession.
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agreed. we all know this latest round of inflation is entirely energy driven.

their piddly interest rate policy is ... well, piddly.. in the face of expensive oil.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

I know I'm going against every trend follower rule in the book here on oil, and picking bottoms is often considered a lost cause because probability of being accurate is low ... With that in mind:

A breakthrough 54 might be a good time to get out -- If this selloff continues too quickly, I won't average in at 56, though, and may just exit sooner, however. So often in these markets, the selling happens before the reports, and everyone short covers on reports.

For me, the position is relatively small so I may be patient with it beyond fixed stops/etc ... given the fundamentals, 58 is getting cheap. This 30/40 per barrel talk is ridiculous.

So we'll see, but I think tommorow may hold a surprise ...

look at OPEC basket - 57 something as of yesterday, so I assume 55 something when updated. Its easy to get used to $70 oil -- $55 is a little weak, considering costs of new development projects.

regardless of my position, the next few days will be a crucial test for the whole commodities group of gold/oil/silver/etc -- The $60 level is broken, but how well defined a break is it? Even if we went down to 55 tommorow, and had a short cover and fundamentals rally back to 60 the following 2 days, I still would define support at 60. We've been hugging the 60 zone for a while, and that is worth something.
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If you are not wildly pyramiding and are careful with your margin, it is hard to wrong buying oil here.
 
"IIIIIINNn the RED corrrrner, OPEC, calling for more realistic prices after this decline,
IIIINNnnn the BLUE corrrrrrrrner, a congressional election in the most powerful nation on earth, and unnnn-limited pundits, calling for 30$ 40$ prrrriiices, aaaasss
'realistic' and sustaaaaaina-ble, this is shaping up as the title bout of the yeeear.

Adjudicating, non-biased petrochemical corporations, who beleive the market sets the price, lets get ready to RUUUUmmmblllllle"

'no rabbit punches, no low shots, lets have a good clean fight'
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

I know I'm going against every trend follower rule in the book here on oil, and picking bottoms is often considered a lost cause because probability of being accurate is low ... With that in mind..., blah blah
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sold 59.30 -- my weak hands take a profit if they can going into a report.
will reconsider after I see some clear signal.
 
Alright, oil has now bottomed, at least for a few weeks. It hit my first buy zone to the tick, the yellow line. It is not going to be straight up from here. It may take a few days to get going. Any retest of the low should be bought. You might want to wait for confirmation on the retest because it has a high chance of being washed out a few times. Expect a range for a while then eventually breaking out to the upside probably in the next few days. Once this happens, jump on it and ride it up on any retracement.
 
Oil is probably looking at somewhere around the low 40's....hedge funds are getting out which will erase a large among of speculation...

Once hedge funds out who is the buyer above the production use cost???

Not energy companies.....that leaves only Elite Trader buyers, LOL


SteveD
 
Quote from SteveD:

Oil is probably looking at somewhere around the low 40's....hedge funds are getting out which will erase a large among of speculation...

Once hedge funds out who is the buyer above the production use cost???

Not energy companies.....that leaves only Elite Trader buyers, LOL


SteveD
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low 40s? despite stocks being high, look at those y/y production number declines on the EIA reports. And look at OPEC's behavior. And look at exuberance about the economy (ie stock market yesterday) with one remark about inflation slowing from Bernanke...

This is a regrouping on the way up. Not until a real global recession will global oil demand 'recede' enough to send it back that low.
 
So much for a short squeeze when OPEC announced a cut in production. LOL :D Just watching the tape the last few weeks it seemed like bigger players were unwinding shorts below 62 down to 60 especially. Maybe OPEC will cut more after the Novermber elections and try to drive the price higher.
 
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