Quote from romik:
All the best on that one, though I feel that weak hands are yet to be shaken further. Where is your stop btw?
I know I'm going against every trend follower rule in the book here on oil, and picking bottoms is often considered a lost cause because probability of being accurate is low ... With that in mind:
A breakthrough 54 might be a good time to get out -- If this selloff continues too quickly, I won't average in at 56, though, and may just exit sooner, however. So often in these markets, the selling happens before the reports, and everyone short covers on reports.
For me, the position is relatively small so I may be patient with it beyond fixed stops/etc ... given the fundamentals, 58 is getting cheap. This 30/40 per barrel talk is ridiculous.
So we'll see, but I think tommorow may hold a surprise ...
look at OPEC basket - 57 something as of yesterday, so I assume 55 something when updated. Its easy to get used to $70 oil -- $55 is a little weak, considering costs of new development projects.
regardless of my position, the next few days will be a crucial test for the whole commodities group of gold/oil/silver/etc -- The $60 level is broken, but how well defined a break is it? Even if we went down to 55 tommorow, and had a short cover and fundamentals rally back to 60 the following 2 days, I still would define support at 60. We've been hugging the 60 zone for a while, and that is worth something.
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