Oil & Gas

Quote from libertad:

Oil Stuck...........

Yeah....as long as a significant portion can be produced below the alt line....

IE....Kuwait ...can bring it up for $1.00....much of the mideast is less than $3.00...

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This is why alts have to swim with $25 oil.....

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Unfortunately....oil will have to have a floating tax to
keep alts alive...after they are introduced.....

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And unfortunately...US public memories will be short when oil backs down....
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The public cares about one thing....

SHORT TERM LOWER PRICES
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When the Bush CRONY premium wares off...and mideast tensions settle.....

The public resolve will vanish into thin air........

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Just like it did in 1980-82....

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The LC swing producers are not going to be happy about alts when their very existence depends on oil revenues....

Yeah $40...$50 is not going to be the low future number....for this sole reason...
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Its been to high for to long, Emerging markets (China, India, Brazil) along with the rest of the world are gobbling up supply. T Boone Pickens says their is limited supply. He has been up in Canada pulling oil out of sand.

So here we are going into May in the US hurricane season right around the corner, $100 dollar oil coming up, cheap oil is gone forever get that thru your heads.
 
Quote from Martin Gale:

Jay,

What is your insider's take on peak oil and peak gas?
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The US saw peak oil/gas in the early 70's I think the World will see it between 2010-2015. Did you have a more specific question? :)
 
Quote from myminitrading:

I am thinking more along the lines of Bio-Diesel, Ethanol, not so much as the hydrogen. Bio-Diesel is a clean burning alternative.
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bio diesel and ethanol both use a food source as fuel. what are the moral implications of using a food source as fuel when 25000 people a day die of starvation in the world? what happens the next time we have a drought and are short of foodstock. we already plant fencerow to fencerow in the united states and use all the available crops for food.
i have seen recent studies that the net energy input to make ethanol is higher than the energy produced.
 
Quote from vhehn:

bio diesel and ethanol both use a food source as fuel. what are the moral implications of using a food source as fuel when 25000 people a day die of starvation in the world? what happens the next time we have a drought and are short of foodstock. we already plant fencerow to fencerow in the united states and use all the available crops for food.
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With Bio-Diesel, restaurant grease is great, you donot have to use grains, and so what if we did at least we would be supporting the American farmer. The one thing we can do here in American is grow things.

The US goverment pays farmers not to plant, HELLO!
 
Quote from myminitrading:



The US goverment pays farmers not to plant, HELLO!
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those days are gone. the only payments nowdays are for highly erodable land that should never have been tilled in the first place. the farm subsidies today are all price based.
we are planting fencerow to fencerow nowdays. (disclaimer i own a farm in south dakota)
land rental rates and land prices have doubled in the last five years because of a lack of tillable land.
 
Quote from JayS:

The US saw peak oil/gas in the early 70's I think the World will see it between 2010-2015. Did you have a more specific question? :)
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Your timing estimate confirms my observation that the 'insider' concensus is consistently for a near-term peak.

Whether we sustain a "hard" vs "soft" landing will be a combination of factors including enforced conservaton, economic growth, geopolitics, energy alternatives, etc. But the single most important determinant is clearly the post-peak depletion rate. There is much speculation about the decline rate of mature oil fields. For example, it is reported that deep water fields in the N. Sea are now showing year-over-year decline rates in the double digit percentages (UK oil production peaked in 1999, I believe). If some of the world's major oil fields exhibit that degree of drop off, the consequences would seem dire.

Do you have direct experience and knowledge of decline rates of mature fields? If so, what kind of rates are you seeing? Thanks.
 
JayS,

How do you rank the relative attractiveness of the various energy sectors, eg refining, E&P, drillers, oil service?

Do you think we are seeing what in retrospect will seem like an incredible opportunity in Nat Gas? Or is it simply more reflective of fundamentals than crude?
 
Quote from Martin Gale:

Do you have direct experience and knowledge of decline rates of mature fields? If so, what kind of rates are you seeing? Thanks.
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I have a pretty good idea of decline rates in mature fields in the US (TX/LA/MS/Gulf), between 5%-7%. Saudi around 8%, Russia between 9%-12%. Thats just a few off the top of my head. World wide is hard to call but I would say 6%-8%.
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

JayS,

How do you rank the relative attractiveness of the various energy sectors, eg refining, E&P, drillers, oil service?

Do you think we are seeing what in retrospect will seem like an incredible opportunity in Nat Gas? Or is it simply more reflective of fundamentals than crude?
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Tough call, high 5's low 6's look like it may be a bargain. I think it might be another rough hurricane season, the gulf needs more time --something thats running out quickly.

I like some of the medium size independents (but might wait for more of a pull back). APC, SNP, APA, OXY, EOG, KMG.
 
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